Does weighting presence records improve the performance of species distribution models? A test using fish larval stages in the Yangtze Estuary
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Zhang, Zhixin4; Mammola, Stefano3; Zhang, Hui1,2,5
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| 刊名 | SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT
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| 出版日期 | 2020-11-01 |
| 卷号 | 741页码:11 |
| 关键词 | Climate change Dominant ichthyoplankton Habitat suitability Species distribution modelling Weighting distribution data The Yangtze Estuary |
| ISSN号 | 0048-9697 |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.140393 |
| 通讯作者 | Zhang, Zhixin(zhangzhixin1102@hotmail.com) ; Zhang, Hui(zhanghui@qdio.ac.cn) |
| 英文摘要 | To obtain realistic forecasts of the impacts of climate change on species habitat suitability, novel approaches based on species distribution models (SDMs) are being developed and scrutinized. We argue here that, when dealing with data from long-term monitoring programmes, incorporating a temporal weight on the occurrence points may result in a more realistic prediction of a species' potential distribution. Using larval fish presence records collected from 1999 to 2013 in the Yangtze Estuary, China, we compared the performance of ensembles of standard SDMs versus SDMs constructed with weighted time-series presence records in predicting the present and future distributions of the larval stages of two dominant fish. The results of the ensemble SDMs showed that weighted presence records can significantly improve SDM performance, as measured through standard validation metrics. The SDM projections suggest that suitable habitat for both species will decrease under future climate scenarios, with one species (Stolephorus commersonnii) predicted to be more susceptible to climate change than the other (Engraulis japonicus). In addition to range contraction, model projections suggest that the future habitats of both species will shift northward-an implication of climate change that should be considered in future management and conservation strategies for the Yangtze Estuary. (C) 2020 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. |
| 资助项目 | National Natural Science Foundation of China[41976094] ; Key Deployment Project of Center for Ocean Mega-Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences[COMS2019Q14] ; Youth Innovation Promotion Association CAS ; International Partnership Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS-JSPS)[GJHZ1885] |
| WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000568813500005 |
| 出版者 | ELSEVIER |
| 源URL | [http://ir.qdio.ac.cn/handle/337002/168795]  |
| 专题 | 海洋研究所_海洋生态与环境科学重点实验室 |
| 通讯作者 | Zhang, Zhixin; Zhang, Hui |
| 作者单位 | 1.Chinese Acad Sci, Ctr Ocean Mega Sci, Qingdao 266071, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Oceanol, CAS Key Lab Marine Ecol & Environm Sci, Qingdao 266071, Peoples R China 3.Water Res Inst Natl Res Council Italy CNR IRSA, Mol Ecol Grp MEG, Largo Tonolli 50, I-28922 Verbania, Italy 4.Tokyo Univ Marine Sci & Technol, Grad Sch Marine Sci & Technol, Minato Ku, Tokyo 1088477, Japan 5.Qingdao Natl Lab Marine Sci & Technol, Lab Marine Ecol & Environm Sci, Qingdao 266237, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Zhang, Zhixin,Mammola, Stefano,Zhang, Hui. Does weighting presence records improve the performance of species distribution models? A test using fish larval stages in the Yangtze Estuary[J]. SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT,2020,741:11. |
| APA | Zhang, Zhixin,Mammola, Stefano,&Zhang, Hui.(2020).Does weighting presence records improve the performance of species distribution models? A test using fish larval stages in the Yangtze Estuary.SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT,741,11. |
| MLA | Zhang, Zhixin,et al."Does weighting presence records improve the performance of species distribution models? A test using fish larval stages in the Yangtze Estuary".SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 741(2020):11. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：海洋研究所
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