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Anthropogenic Influences on 2019 July Precipitation Extremes Over the Mid-Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River

文献类型：期刊论文

作者Nanding, Nergui5; Chen, Yang6; Wu, Huan5; Dong, Buwen7; Tian, Fangxing7; Lott, Fraser C.8; Tett, Simon F. B.9; Rico-Ramirez, Miguel Angel10; Chen, Yiheng10; Huang, Zhijun5
刊名FRONTIERS IN ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE
出版日期2020-11-25
卷号8页码:6
关键词precipitation extreme events climate change Yangtze (Changjiang) catchment attribution studies anthropogenic influence
DOI10.3389/fenvs.2020.603061
通讯作者Wu, Huan(wuhuan3@mail.sysu.edu.cn)
英文摘要Understanding the driving factors for precipitation extremes matters for adaptation and mitigation measures against the changing hydrometeorological hazards in Yangtze River basin, a habitable area that provides water resources for domestic, farming, and industrial needs. However, the region is naturally subject to major floods linked to monsoonal heavy precipitation during May-September. This study aims to quantify anthropogenic influences on the changing risk of 2-week-long precipitation extremes such as the July 2019 extreme cases, as well as events of shorter durations, over the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River basin (MLYRB). Precipitation extremes with different durations ranging from 1-day to 14-days maximum precipitation accumulations are investigated. Gridded daily precipitations based on nearly 2,400 meteorological stations across China are used to define maximum accumulated precipitation extremes over the MLYRB in July during 1961-2019. Attribution analysis is conducted by using the Met Office HadGEM3-GA6 modeling system, which comprises two sets of 525-member ensembles for 2019. One is forced with observed sea-surface temperatures (SSTs), sea-ice and all forcings, and the other is forced with preindustrialized SSTs and natural forcings only. The risk ratio between the exceedance probabilities estimated from all-forcing and natural-forcing simulations is calculated to quantify the anthropogenic contribution to the changing risks of the July 2019-like precipitation extremes. The results reveal that anthropogenic warming has reduced the likelihood of 2019-like 14-days heavy precipitation over the mid-lower reaches of the Yangtze River by 20%, but increased that of 2-days extremes by 30%.
资助项目National Key RD Program[2018YFC1507700] ; National Key RD Program[2017YFA0605004] ; UKChina Research and Innovation Partnership Fund through the Met Office Climate Science for Service Partnership (CSSP) China as part of the Newton Fund ; Natural Science Foundation (NSF) of China[41975105] ; NSF of China[41905101] ; NSF of China[U1811464] ; NSF of China[41861144014] ; NSF of China[41775106] ; NSF of China[41991254] ; NSF of China[41706019] ; Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities[20lgpy25] ; Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences[XDB42000000] ; UK-China Research and Innovation Partnership Fund through the Met Office Climate Science for Service Partnership (CSSP) China as part of the Newton Fund
WOS研究方向Environmental Sciences & Ecology
语种英语
WOS记录号WOS:000597154400001
出版者FRONTIERS MEDIA SA
源URL[http://ir.qdio.ac.cn/handle/337002/169383]  
专题海洋研究所_海洋环流与波动重点实验室
通讯作者Wu, Huan
作者单位1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Earth Environm, SKLLQG, Xian, Peoples R China
2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Oceanol, CAS Key Lab Ocean Circulat & Waves, Qingdao, Peoples R China
3.Nanjing Univ, Sch Atmospher Sci, Key Lab Mesoscale Severe Weather, Nanjing, Peoples R China
4.Beijing Normal Univ, State Key Lab Earth Surface Proc & Resource Ecol, Fac Geog Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China
5.Sun Yat Sen Univ, Sch Atmospher Sci, Guangdong Prov Key Lab Climate Change & Nat Disas, Guangzhou, Peoples R China
6.Chinese Acad Meteorol Sci, State Key Lab Severe Weather, Beijing, Peoples R China
7.Univ Reading, Natl Ctr Atmospher Sci, Dept Meteorol, Reading, Berks, England
8.Met Off Hadley Ctr, Exeter, Devon, England
9.Univ Edinburgh, Sch Geosci, Edinburgh, Midlothian, Scotland
10.Univ Bristol, Dept Civil Engn, Bristol, Avon, England
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714		 Nanding, Nergui,Chen, Yang,Wu, Huan,et al. Anthropogenic Influences on 2019 July Precipitation Extremes Over the Mid-Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River[J]. FRONTIERS IN ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE,2020,8:6.
APA Nanding, Nergui.,Chen, Yang.,Wu, Huan.,Dong, Buwen.,Tian, Fangxing.,...&Fan, Xuewei.(2020).Anthropogenic Influences on 2019 July Precipitation Extremes Over the Mid-Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River.FRONTIERS IN ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE,8,6.
MLA Nanding, Nergui,et al."Anthropogenic Influences on 2019 July Precipitation Extremes Over the Mid-Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River".FRONTIERS IN ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE 8(2020):6.

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来源：海洋研究所

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