Reconstructed Regional Mean Climate with Bayesian Model Averaging: A Case Study for Temperature Reconstruction in the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau, China
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Zhang, Xianliang3; Yan, Xiaodong2; Chen, Zhenju1,3 |
| 刊名 | JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
 |
| 出版日期 | 2016-07-01 |
| 卷号 | 29期号:14页码:5355-5361 |
| ISSN号 | 0894-8755 |
| DOI | 10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0603.1 |
| 通讯作者 | Chen, Zhenju(zhenjuchen@hotmail.com) |
| 英文摘要 | A method was developed, based on Bayesian model averaging (BMA), to reconstruct regional mean temperature. Different from the arithmetic mean, which gives equal weight to each chronology, BMA weights the chronologies according to their contributions to the actual temperature variances. Thus, BMA holds advantages in integrating chronologies to reconstruct the regional mean temperature. The regional mean temperature for the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau was reconstructed for the past four centuries (1628-2005) using BMA, which performed better than the simple arithmetic mean. The reconstruction explained 41.33% of total observed temperature variances during the period of 1961-2005. The warmest decade was found to be 1840-50 and the coldest 1810-20 prior to the instrumental period. The reconstructed temperature showed a high correlation (r > 0.7, p < 0.001) with gridded observed temperatures in most grid cells of the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau, suggesting that the regional temperature changes were captured well by the reconstruction. |
| 资助项目 | National Natural Science Foundation of China[41271066] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[31570632] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41571094] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[31570473] |
| WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000379209800018 |
| 出版者 | AMER METEOROLOGICAL SOC |
| 资助机构 | National Natural Science Foundation of China |
| 源URL | [http://ir.imr.ac.cn/handle/321006/126965]  |
| 专题 | 金属研究所_中国科学院金属研究所 |
| 通讯作者 | Chen, Zhenju |
| 作者单位 | 1.Chinese Acad Sci, Qingyuan Forest CERN, Shenyang, Peoples R China 2.Beijing Normal Univ, State Key Lab Earth Surface Proc & Resource Ecol, Beijing, Peoples R China 3.Shenyang Agr Univ, Tree Ring Lab, Coll Forestry, Shenyang, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Zhang, Xianliang,Yan, Xiaodong,Chen, Zhenju. Reconstructed Regional Mean Climate with Bayesian Model Averaging: A Case Study for Temperature Reconstruction in the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau, China[J]. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,2016,29(14):5355-5361. |
| APA | Zhang, Xianliang,Yan, Xiaodong,&Chen, Zhenju.(2016).Reconstructed Regional Mean Climate with Bayesian Model Averaging: A Case Study for Temperature Reconstruction in the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau, China.JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,29(14),5355-5361. |
| MLA | Zhang, Xianliang,et al."Reconstructed Regional Mean Climate with Bayesian Model Averaging: A Case Study for Temperature Reconstruction in the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau, China".JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 29.14(2016):5355-5361. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：金属研究所
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