County-level estimates of population and economic scenarios under the shared socioeconomic pathways: A case study in Inner Mongolia, China
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Bai, Yuping1; Wang, Wenxuan2,3; Hu, Yecui1; Wang, Zehao4 |
| 刊名 | PHYSICS AND CHEMISTRY OF THE EARTH
 |
| 出版日期 | 2021-06-01 |
| 卷号 | 122页码:13 |
| 关键词 | Population projection GDP Projection Shared socioeconomic pathways County-level Inner Mongolia |
| ISSN号 | 1474-7065 |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.pce.2021.103017 |
| 通讯作者 | Bai, Yuping(baiyp@cugb.edu.cn) |
| 英文摘要 | Contribution from socio-economic development to climate change cannot be ignored. In order to make a more reasonable comprehensive assessment of the future climate change, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has proposed the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) based on the background of climate change and the possible future socio-economic conditions, which describes the adaptation and mitigation challenges of climate change. Based on different SSP scenarios, combined with China's current population policy and the actual social and economic development in Inner Mongolia, this paper adopts PDE model and C-D model to simulate population and economic changes of various counties in Inner Mongolia from 2010 to 2050. It is founded that population and GDP varies from different counties significantly, and shows the patterns of high in east and low in west, high in south and low in north. The spatial distribution of GDP is positively related with the population. The total population increases first and then decreases from 2015 to 2050 in Inner Mongolia. By the ends of 2050, the population reaches 23.32 million (-9.46%), 24.14 million (-2.30%), 24.72 million (+0.05%), 22.37 million (-9.46%), 23.49 million (-4.93%) under SSP1, SSP2, SSP3, SSP4, SSP5 scenarios. The largest gap of population is 2.35 million between SSP3 and SSP4. The GDP grows constantly from 2010 to 2050 in Inner Mongolia, but the growth rate is slowing down. By the ends of 2050, GDP reaches 5.09 trillion (+4.75 times), 5.22 trillion (+4.90 times), 4.41 trillion (+3.98 times), 4.98 trillion (+4.62 times), 5.87 trillion (+5.63 times). Therein, the biggest gap of GDP is 1.5 trillion between SSP4 and SSP5. The results provide technical solution for population and economic projection under SSPs at small area and subnational level, and provides scientific basis for the formulation of climate change policies in order to formulate measures to deal with climate change risks. |
| WOS关键词 | LAND-USE CHANGE ; URBANIZATION ; IMPACT |
| 资助项目 | Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities[2-9-2020-022] ; National Key Research and Development Program of China[2016YFA0602500] ; Open-ended Fund of Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Chinese Academy of Sciences[LB2021001] ; National Natural Science Fund for Distinguished Young Scholar[71225005] |
| WOS研究方向 | Geology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences ; Water Resources |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000656474300001 |
| 出版者 | PERGAMON-ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD |
| 资助机构 | Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities ; National Key Research and Development Program of China ; Open-ended Fund of Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Chinese Academy of Sciences ; National Natural Science Fund for Distinguished Young Scholar |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/163965]  |
| 专题 | 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 |
| 通讯作者 | Bai, Yuping |
| 作者单位 | 1.China Univ Geosci, Sch Land Sci & Technol, Beijing 100083, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China 3.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100149, Peoples R China 4.Shandong Univ Sci & Technol, Sch Surveying & Mapping Sci & Engn, Qingdao 266590, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Bai, Yuping,Wang, Wenxuan,Hu, Yecui,et al. County-level estimates of population and economic scenarios under the shared socioeconomic pathways: A case study in Inner Mongolia, China[J]. PHYSICS AND CHEMISTRY OF THE EARTH,2021,122:13. |
| APA | Bai, Yuping,Wang, Wenxuan,Hu, Yecui,&Wang, Zehao.(2021).County-level estimates of population and economic scenarios under the shared socioeconomic pathways: A case study in Inner Mongolia, China.PHYSICS AND CHEMISTRY OF THE EARTH,122,13. |
| MLA | Bai, Yuping,et al."County-level estimates of population and economic scenarios under the shared socioeconomic pathways: A case study in Inner Mongolia, China".PHYSICS AND CHEMISTRY OF THE EARTH 122(2021):13. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
浏览0
下载0
收藏0
其他版本
除非特别说明，本系统中所有内容都受版权保护，并保留所有权利。