Detection of type of trends in surface air temperature in China
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Li, Xinxin3,4; Sang, Yan-Fang3 ; Sivakumar, Bellie2; Gil-Alana, Luis A.1
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| 刊名 | JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY
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| 出版日期 | 2021-05-01 |
| 卷号 | 596页码:11 |
| ISSN号 | 0022-1694 |
| 关键词 | Temperature variability Deterministic trend Stochastic trend Unit root test Fractional integration Long-range dependence |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.126061 |
| 通讯作者 | Sang, Yan-Fang(sangyf@igsnrr.ac.cn) |
| 英文摘要 | Detection of the type of trend in temperature data, by distinguishing between deterministic and stochastic trends, has important implications for understanding climate change. The Unit root tests (URTs) have been widely used for detecting the type of trend, but they do not consider the possibility of fractional integration and its influences. In this study, we detected the type of trends in observed surface air temperature during 1960-2019 at 558 stations across China, by considering fractional integration. The whole period was divided into three sub-periods by two structural breakpoints (denoted as SBP1 and SBP2). The fractional differencing parameter d was estimated by the Local Whittle (LW) function, and then three URTs (namely PP, KPSS, and ZA) were used to detect the type of trends in the temperature data during different sub-periods. The results indicated that the de-seasoned monthly temperature (DMT) series were fractionally integrated and, thus, exhibited long-range dependence characteristics, which significantly influenced the estimation of the slope of trend and detection of the type of trend. Compared with the LW function, the ordinary least squares method yielded biased estimation of the slope of trend, as it could not eliminate the influence of long-range dependence of the DMT series. The DMT series with weak long-range dependence or anti-persistent characteristics during 1960-SBP1, SBP1-SBP2, and SBP2-2019 were accurately detected as deterministic trends. However, the DMT series with strong long-range dependence during SBP1-2019 and 1960-2019 were detected to have stochastic trends by the KPSS test. Following the results of the fractional integration and URTs together, temperature over short periods in China were detected to have deterministic trends, but those at long periods were detected to have a combination of long-range dependence and deterministic trends. |
| WOS关键词 | LONG-RANGE DEPENDENCE ; TIME-SERIES ; MEMORY ; HIATUS ; TESTS |
| 资助项目 | National Key Research and Development Program[2019YFA0606903] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41971040] ; Youth Innovation Promotion Association of CAS[2017074] ; CAS Interdisciplinary Innovation Team[JCTD-2019-04] |
| WOS研究方向 | Engineering ; Geology ; Water Resources |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 出版者 | ELSEVIER |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000642334400037 |
| 资助机构 | National Key Research and Development Program ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; Youth Innovation Promotion Association of CAS ; CAS Interdisciplinary Innovation Team |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/163977]  |
| 专题 | 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 |
| 通讯作者 | Sang, Yan-Fang |
| 作者单位 | 1.Univ Navarra, Fac Econ, Pamplona, Spain 2.Indian Inst Technol, Dept Civil Engn, Mumbai 400076, Maharashtra, India 3.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Water Cycle & Related Land Surface Proc, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China 4.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 101407, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Li, Xinxin,Sang, Yan-Fang,Sivakumar, Bellie,et al. Detection of type of trends in surface air temperature in China[J]. JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY,2021,596:11. |
| APA | Li, Xinxin,Sang, Yan-Fang,Sivakumar, Bellie,&Gil-Alana, Luis A..(2021).Detection of type of trends in surface air temperature in China.JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY,596,11. |
| MLA | Li, Xinxin,et al."Detection of type of trends in surface air temperature in China".JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY 596(2021):11. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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