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A small climate-amplifying effect of climate-carbon cycle feedback

文献类型：期刊论文

作者Zhang, Xuanze9,10; Wang, Ying-Ping11,12; Rayner, Peter J.1; Ciais, Philippe2; Huang, Kun10; Luo, Yiqi3; Piao, Shilong4; Wang, Zhonglei5,6; Xia, Jianyang10; Zhao, Wei8
刊名NATURE COMMUNICATIONS
出版日期2021-05-19
卷号12期号:1页码:11
ISSN号2041-1723
DOI10.1038/s41467-021-22392-w
通讯作者Zhang, Xuanze(xuanzezhang@igsnrr.ac.cn) ; Wang, Ying-Ping(yingping.wang@csiro.au) ; Zhang, Yongqiang(zhangyq@igsnrr.ac.cn)
英文摘要The climate-carbon cycle feedback is one of the most important climate-amplifying feedbacks of the Earth system, and is quantified as a function of carbon-concentration feedback parameter (beta) and carbon-climate feedback parameter (gamma). However, the global climate-amplifying effect from this feedback loop (determined by the gain factor, g) has not been quantified from observations. Here we apply a Fourier analysis-based carbon cycle feedback framework to the reconstructed records from 1850 to 2017 and 1000 to 1850 to estimate beta and gamma. We show that the beta -feedback varies by less than 10% with an average of 3.220.32GtCppm(-1) for 1880-2017, whereas the gamma -feedback increases from -33 +/- 14GtCK(-1) on a decadal scale to -122 +/- 60GtCK(-1) on a centennial scale for 1000-1850. Feedback analysis further reveals that the current amplification effect from the carbon cycle feedback is small (g is 0.01 +/- 0.05), which is much lower than the estimates by the advanced Earth system models (g is 0.09 +/- 0.04 for the historical period and is 0.15 +/- 0.08 for the RCP8.5 scenario), implying that the future allowable CO2 emissions could be 9 +/- 7% more. Therefore, our findings provide new insights about the strength of climate-carbon cycle feedback and about observational constraints on models for projecting future climate. How to curb climate change is uncertain, in part because determination of allowable emissions depends on models with low accuracy. Here the authors re-analyze climate-carbon feedbacks and find that CO2 emissions could be 9 +/- 7% higher and still meet Paris Agreement goals.
WOS关键词ICE-CORE ; LAND-USE ; DIOXIDE ; OCEAN ; CONSTRAINTS ; SENSITIVITY ; SYSTEM ; UNCERTAINTIES ; AGE
资助项目National Key Research and Development Program of China[2017YFA0604603] ; National Key Research and Development Program of China[2016YFA0602501] ; CAS Pioneer Talent Program ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[42001019] ; Shanghai Sailing Program[19YF1413100] ; National Environmental Science Program (climate change and earth system science) ; European Research Council Synergy grant[ERC-2013-SyG-610028 IMBALANCE-P]
WOS研究方向Science & Technology - Other Topics
语种英语
出版者NATURE RESEARCH
WOS记录号WOS:000658740600006
资助机构National Key Research and Development Program of China ; CAS Pioneer Talent Program ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; Shanghai Sailing Program ; National Environmental Science Program (climate change and earth system science) ; European Research Council Synergy grant
源URL[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/164146]  
专题中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
通讯作者Zhang, Xuanze; Wang, Ying-Ping; Zhang, Yongqiang
作者单位1.Univ Melbourne, Climate & Energy Coll, Sch Earth Sci, Parkville, Vic, Australia
2.Univ Paris Saclay, Lab Sci Climat & Environm, LSCE IPSL, CEA,CNRS,UVSQ, Gif Sur Yvette, France
3.No Arizona Univ, Ctr Ecosyst Sci & Soc, Flagstaff, AZ USA
4.Peking Univ, Coll Urban & Environm Sci, Sino French Inst Earth Syst Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China
5.Xiamen Univ, Wang Yanan Inst Studies Econ WISE, Xiamen, Peoples R China
6.Xiamen Univ, Sch Econ, Xiamen, Peoples R China
7.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, Key Lab Reg Climate Environm Res East Asia, Beijing, Peoples R China
8.China Meteorol Adm, Natl Meteorol Ctr, Beijing, Peoples R China
9.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Water Cycle & Related Land Surface Proc, Beijing, Peoples R China
10.East China Normal Univ, Res Ctr Global Change & Ecol Forecasting, Sch Ecol & Environm Sci, Shanghai, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714		 Zhang, Xuanze,Wang, Ying-Ping,Rayner, Peter J.,et al. A small climate-amplifying effect of climate-carbon cycle feedback[J]. NATURE COMMUNICATIONS,2021,12(1):11.
APA Zhang, Xuanze.,Wang, Ying-Ping.,Rayner, Peter J..,Ciais, Philippe.,Huang, Kun.,...&Zhang, Yongqiang.(2021).A small climate-amplifying effect of climate-carbon cycle feedback.NATURE COMMUNICATIONS,12(1),11.
MLA Zhang, Xuanze,et al."A small climate-amplifying effect of climate-carbon cycle feedback".NATURE COMMUNICATIONS 12.1(2021):11.

入库方式： OAI收割

来源：地理科学与资源研究所

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