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Correspondence relationship between ENSO teleconnection and anomaly correlation for GCM seasonal precipitation forecasts

文献类型：期刊论文

作者Zhao, Tongtiegang1; Chen, Haoling1; Pan, Baoxiang2; Ye, Lei3; Cai, Huayang4; Zhang, Yongyong5; Chen, Xiaohong1
刊名CLIMATE DYNAMICS
出版日期2021-08-13
页码17
关键词Global climate model Seasonal forecasts Precipitation Anomaly correlation El Nino-Southern Oscillation
ISSN号0930-7575
DOI10.1007/s00382-021-05925-3
通讯作者Zhao, Tongtiegang(zhaottg@mail.sysu.edu.cn) ; Chen, Xiaohong(eescxh@mail.sysu.edu.cn)
英文摘要Precipitation forecasts generated by global climate models (GCMs) are valuable for environmental modelling and management. At the seasonal timescale, GCMs' forecast skills are generally attributed to low-frequency climate signals, particularly to the internal climate variability mode of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). This study proposes a diagnostic method targeting the correlation coefficients for both Nino3.4 index and GCM forecasts in relating them to global precipitation. The similarities versus differences are identified. For the Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) forecasts, regions with significantly positive anomaly correlation corresponding to significant ENSO teleconnection are highlighted, and regions with significantly positive anomaly correlation in the absence of significant ENSO teleconnection are revealed. As December-January-February (DJF) is the peak season of ENSO, it is estimated that for every 100 grid points with significant ENSO teleconnection, ENSO teleconnection determines significantly positive anomaly correlation for 37 of them; the ratio is respectively 34/100 in March-April-May (MAM), 30/100 in June-July-August (JJA), and 38/100 in September-October-November (SON). It is found that anomaly correlation benefits substantially from ENSO teleconnection over Southern Africa, Central America/Mexico, Amazon and Central North America in DJF, Southeast Asia, North-East Brazil and Central Asia in MAM, Southeast Asia and West Coast South America in JJA, and Southeast Asia, Australia and New Zealand in SON. Limited contributions of ENSO teleconnection to anomaly correlation are observed for North Europe in DJF, West Cost South America and East North America in MAM, North-East Brazil and Central America/Mexico in JJA, and Amazon in SON. Overall, the proposed method contributes to disentangling the sources of GCM forecast skill of seasonal precipitation and fostering better seasonal forecast benchmarking and diagnosis.
WOS关键词CLIMATE MODELS SIMULATE ; ATMOSPHERIC TELECONNECTIONS ; SUMMER PRECIPITATION ; NORTH PACIFIC ; PREDICTION ; PREDICTABILITY ; TEMPERATURE ; IMPACTS ; SKILL ; VARIABILITY
资助项目Natural Science Foundation of China[51725905] ; Natural Science Foundation of China[51979295] ; Natural Science Foundation of China[51861125203] ; Natural Science Foundation of China[U1911204] ; Guangdong Provincial Department of Science and Technology[2019ZT08G090]
WOS研究方向Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
语种英语
WOS记录号WOS:000684768800001
出版者SPRINGER
资助机构Natural Science Foundation of China ; Guangdong Provincial Department of Science and Technology
源URL[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/164671]  
专题中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
通讯作者Zhao, Tongtiegang; Chen, Xiaohong
作者单位1.Sun Yat Sen Univ, Ctr Water Resources & Environm, Sch Civil Engn, Southern Marine Sci & Engn Guangdong Lab Zhuhai, Guangzhou, Guangdong, Peoples R China
2.Univ Calif Irvine, Ctr Hydrometeorol & Remote Sensing, Irvine, CA USA
3.Dalian Univ Technol, Sch Hydraul Engn, Dalian, Peoples R China
4.Sun Yat Sen Univ, Sch Marine Engn & Technol, Inst Estuarine & Coastal Res, Guangzhou, Peoples R China
5.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Water Cycle & Related Land Surface Proc, Beijing, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714		 Zhao, Tongtiegang,Chen, Haoling,Pan, Baoxiang,et al. Correspondence relationship between ENSO teleconnection and anomaly correlation for GCM seasonal precipitation forecasts[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2021:17.
APA Zhao, Tongtiegang.,Chen, Haoling.,Pan, Baoxiang.,Ye, Lei.,Cai, Huayang.,...&Chen, Xiaohong.(2021).Correspondence relationship between ENSO teleconnection and anomaly correlation for GCM seasonal precipitation forecasts.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,17.
MLA Zhao, Tongtiegang,et al."Correspondence relationship between ENSO teleconnection and anomaly correlation for GCM seasonal precipitation forecasts".CLIMATE DYNAMICS (2021):17.

入库方式： OAI收割

来源：地理科学与资源研究所

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