An evaluation model for landslide and debris flow prediction using multiple hydrometeorological variables
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Hou, Jinjin3; Dou, Ming1,3; Zhang, Yongyong4 ; Wang, Jihua2; Li, Guiqiu1
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| 刊名 | ENVIRONMENTAL EARTH SCIENCES
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| 出版日期 | 2021-08-01 |
| 卷号 | 80期号:16页码:18 |
| 关键词 | SWAT model Multiple hydrometeorological variables Trigger sensitivities Landslide and debris flow Prediction model |
| ISSN号 | 1866-6280 |
| DOI | 10.1007/s12665-021-09840-y |
| 通讯作者 | Dou, Ming(dou_ming@163.com) |
| 英文摘要 | Landslide and debris flows are typically triggered by rainfall-related weather conditions, including short-duration storms and long-lasting rainfall. The critical precipitation of landslides and debris flow occurrence is different under various hydrometeorological conditions. In this study, the trigger sensitivities of different daily hydrological variables were assessed using 50 days-worth of recorded landslide and debris flows using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool model. The event days were divided into long-lasting rainfall trigger (LLR-trigger) event days and short-duration storm trigger (SDS-trigger) event days with six determinate criteria based on modeled wetness states. The landslide and debris flow prediction model was built using nine hydrometeorological variables, and the predictive performance was tested with simulated data from 2010 to 2012. The results suggest that, except for rainfall, historical hydrological variables and their development provide important information for triggering landslides and debris flows. The prediction model with an area under curve (AUC) value of 0.85 was able to capture most of the landslides and debris flows. The temporal distribution of the two triggering events predicted by the model was consistent with the annual precipitation distribution. In addition, the spatial variations of the specific trigger types could be attributed to the different land covers. Despite some uncertainty, this study provides an idea of improving the landslide and debris flow prediction model. |
| WOS关键词 | RAINFALL THRESHOLDS ; SHALLOW LANDSLIDES ; SHAANXI PROVINCE ; QINBA MOUNTAINS ; SOIL-MOISTURE ; SUSCEPTIBILITY ; PRECIPITATION ; INITIATION ; CHINA ; REGION |
| 资助项目 | National Natural Science Foundation of China[51679218] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[51879239] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[51879252] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[51709238] |
| WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Geology ; Water Resources |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000692144100005 |
| 出版者 | SPRINGER |
| 资助机构 | National Natural Science Foundation of China |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/165225]  |
| 专题 | 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 |
| 通讯作者 | Dou, Ming |
| 作者单位 | 1.Zhengzhou Univ, Sch Ecol & Environm, Zhengzhou 450001, Peoples R China 2.Geol Environm Monitoring Inst Henan Prov, Zhengzhou 450000, Peoples R China 3.Zhengzhou Univ, Sch Water Conservancy Sci & Engn, 100 Kexue Rd, Zhengzhou 450001, Henan, Peoples R China 4.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Hou, Jinjin,Dou, Ming,Zhang, Yongyong,et al. An evaluation model for landslide and debris flow prediction using multiple hydrometeorological variables[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL EARTH SCIENCES,2021,80(16):18. |
| APA | Hou, Jinjin,Dou, Ming,Zhang, Yongyong,Wang, Jihua,&Li, Guiqiu.(2021).An evaluation model for landslide and debris flow prediction using multiple hydrometeorological variables.ENVIRONMENTAL EARTH SCIENCES,80(16),18. |
| MLA | Hou, Jinjin,et al."An evaluation model for landslide and debris flow prediction using multiple hydrometeorological variables".ENVIRONMENTAL EARTH SCIENCES 80.16(2021):18. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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