Climate change detection and attribution in the Ganga-Brahmaputra-Meghna river basins
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Sharma, Chetan1; Shukla, Anoop Kumar2; Zhang, Yongqiang2 |
| 刊名 | GEOSCIENCE FRONTIERS
 |
| 出版日期 | 2021-09-01 |
| 卷号 | 12期号:5页码:10 |
| 关键词 | Ganga-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) Climate change Support vector machine Signal to noise ratio Anthropogenic activities |
| ISSN号 | 1674-9871 |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.gsf.2021.101186 |
| 通讯作者 | Zhang, Yongqiang(zhangyq@igsnrr.ac.cn) |
| 英文摘要 | Ganga-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) river basin is the third-largest and one of the most populated river basins in the world. As climate change is affecting most of the hydrometeorological variables across the globe, this study investigated the existence of climate change signal in all four climatological seasons in the GBM river basin and assessed the contribution of anthropogenic activities, i.e., Greenhouse Gases (GHGs) emission in the change. Significant decreasing trends in the monsoon and a small increase in pre-monsoon precipitation were observed. Negligible change was detected in post-monsoon and winter season precipitation. CMIP5 GCMs were used for climate change detection, change point estimation, and attribution studies. Support Vector Machine (SVM) regression method was adopted to downscale GCM variables at the local scale. Monte-Carlo simulation approach was used to detect changes in different seasons. The climate change 'signals' were detectable after the year 1980 using Signal to Noise ratio (SNR) method in the majority of central and north-western regions. The change point was detectable only in annual monsoon precipitation at the basin level. Attribution analysis indicated >50% contribution of anthropogenic activities (GHGs) to annual monsoon precipitation changes. So, there is high confidence that monsoon precipitation in GBM has significantly changed due to anthropogenic activities. Different mitigation and adaption measures are also suggested, which may be adopted to manage the growing demand and water availability in the basin. (C) 2021 China University of Geosciences (Beijing) and Peking University. Production and hosting by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/). |
| WOS关键词 | EXTREME PRECIPITATION ; HYDROLOGICAL REGIME ; MANN-KENDALL ; TRENDS ; IMPACTS ; VARIABILITY ; RAINFALL ; DETECTABILITY ; TEMPERATURE ; SIMULATIONS |
| 资助项目 | Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program[2019QZKK0208] ; CAS Pioneer Hundred Talents Program |
| WOS研究方向 | Geology |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000692319300013 |
| 出版者 | CHINA UNIV GEOSCIENCES, BEIJING |
| 资助机构 | Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program ; CAS Pioneer Hundred Talents Program |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/165422]  |
| 专题 | 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 |
| 通讯作者 | Zhang, Yongqiang |
| 作者单位 | 1.JIET, Civil Engn Dept, Jodhpur, Rajasthan, India 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Water Cycle & Related Land Surface Proc, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Sharma, Chetan,Shukla, Anoop Kumar,Zhang, Yongqiang. Climate change detection and attribution in the Ganga-Brahmaputra-Meghna river basins[J]. GEOSCIENCE FRONTIERS,2021,12(5):10. |
| APA | Sharma, Chetan,Shukla, Anoop Kumar,&Zhang, Yongqiang.(2021).Climate change detection and attribution in the Ganga-Brahmaputra-Meghna river basins.GEOSCIENCE FRONTIERS,12(5),10. |
| MLA | Sharma, Chetan,et al."Climate change detection and attribution in the Ganga-Brahmaputra-Meghna river basins".GEOSCIENCE FRONTIERS 12.5(2021):10. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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