Assessing and predicting soil carbon density in China using CMIP5 earth system models
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Qiu, Linjing2; Yu, Mengzhen2; Wu, Yiping2; Yao, Yingying2; Wang, Zhaosheng1; Shi, Zhaoyang2; Guan, Yinghui3 |
| 刊名 | SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT
 |
| 出版日期 | 2021-12-10 |
| 卷号 | 799页码:12 |
| ISSN号 | 0048-9697 |
| 关键词 | Carbon cycle Model uncertainty Multimodel ensemble Spatial distribution Projection |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.149247 |
| 通讯作者 | Wu, Yiping(yipingwu@xjtu.edu.cn) |
| 英文摘要 | Soil carbon (SC) is a key component of the carbon cycle and plays an important role in climate change; however, quantitatively assessing SC dynamics at the regional scale remains challenging. Earth system model (ESM) that considers multiple environmental factors and spatial heterogeneity has become a powerful tool to explore carbon cycle-climate feedbacks, although the performance of the ESM is diverse and highly uncertain. Thus, identifying reliable ESMs is a prerequisite for better understanding the response of SC dynamics to human activity and climate change. The 16 ESMs that participated in the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) were employed to evaluate the skill performance of SC density simulation by comparison with reference data from the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme Data and Information System (IGBP-DIS). Although ESMs generally reflect spatial patterns with lower SC in northwest China and higher SC in southeast China, 11 of 16 ESMs underestimated the SC in China, and 5 of 16 ESMs overestimated the SC density as most ESMs had large discrepancies in capturing the SC density in the northern high latitudes of China and the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. According to a series of model performance statistics, SC simulated by Institute Pierre Simon Laplace (IPSL) Coupled Model had a close spatial pattern with IGBP-DIS and showed higher skills for SC predictions in China relative to other CMIP5 ESMs. The multimodel ensemble average obtained by IPSL family ESMs showed that SC density exhibited increasing trends under both the RCP4.5 scenario and RCP8.5 scenario. The SC density increased slowly under RCP8.5 compared with that under RCP4.5 and even displayed a decreasing trend in the late 21st century. The findings of this study can provide a reference for identifying the shortcomings of SC predictions in China and guide SC parameterization improvement in ESMs. (c) 2021 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. |
| WOS关键词 | ORGANIC-CARBON ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; SPATIAL-PATTERNS ; LOESS PLATEAU ; ELEVATED CO2 ; LAND-USE ; DYNAMICS ; STORAGE ; SEQUESTRATION ; UNCERTAINTY |
| 资助项目 | National Natural Science Foundation of China[31961143011] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[32071590] ; Natural Science Foundation of Shaanxi Province of China[2019JM-457] ; Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences[XDB40020205] ; Innova-tion Team of Shaanxi Province in China[2021TD-52] ; Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities[xzy012019011] |
| WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 出版者 | ELSEVIER |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000698703900002 |
| 资助机构 | National Natural Science Foundation of China ; Natural Science Foundation of Shaanxi Province of China ; Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences ; Innova-tion Team of Shaanxi Province in China ; Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/165627]  |
| 专题 | 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 |
| 通讯作者 | Wu, Yiping |
| 作者单位 | 1.Chinese Acad Sci, Natl Ecosyst Sci Data Ctr, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Ecosyst Network Observat & Modeling, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China 2.Xiao Jiaotong Univ, Dept Earth & Environm Sci, Sch Human Settlements & Civil Engn, 28 West Xianning Rd, Xian 710049, Shaanxi, Peoples R China 3.Beijing Forestry Univ, Sch Soil & Water Conservat, Beijing 100083, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Qiu, Linjing,Yu, Mengzhen,Wu, Yiping,et al. Assessing and predicting soil carbon density in China using CMIP5 earth system models[J]. SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT,2021,799:12. |
| APA | Qiu, Linjing.,Yu, Mengzhen.,Wu, Yiping.,Yao, Yingying.,Wang, Zhaosheng.,...&Guan, Yinghui.(2021).Assessing and predicting soil carbon density in China using CMIP5 earth system models.SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT,799,12. |
| MLA | Qiu, Linjing,et al."Assessing and predicting soil carbon density in China using CMIP5 earth system models".SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 799(2021):12. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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