The characteristics of valley phase as predictor of the forthcoming solar cycle
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Tan, Baolin1,2 |
| 刊名 | ADVANCES IN SPACE RESEARCH
 |
| 出版日期 | 2019 |
| 卷号 | 63期号:1页码:617-625 |
| 关键词 | Solar cycle Prediction |
| ISSN号 | 0273-1177 |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.asr.2018.08.004 |
| 英文摘要 | Is Solar Cycle 24 anomalous? How do we predict the main features of a forthcoming cycle? In order to reply such questions, this work partitions quantitatively each cycle into valley, ascend, peak, and descend phases, statistically investigate the correlations between valley phase and the forthcoming cycle. We find that the preceding valley phase may dominate and can be predictor of the forthcoming cycle: (1) The growth rate in ascend phase strongly negatively correlates to valley length and strongly positively correlates to cycle maximum. (2) The cycle maximum strongly negatively correlates to valley length, and strongly positively correlates to cycle minimum. (3) The cycle period strongly negatively correlates to the valley variation. Based on these correlations, we conclude that the solar cycle 24 is a relatively weak and long cycle which is obviously weaker than Cycle 23. The similarity analysis also presents the similar result. The Cycle 25 is also inferred possibly to be a weak cycle. These results can help us understanding the physical processes of solar cycles. (C) 2018 COSPAR. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. |
| WOS关键词 | AMPLITUDE |
| 资助项目 | NSFC[11433006] ; NSFC[11373039] ; NSFC[11573039] ; NSFC[11661161015] ; NSFC[11790301] |
| WOS研究方向 | Astronomy & Astrophysics ; Geology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000457510000046 |
| 出版者 | ELSEVIER SCI LTD |
| 资助机构 | NSFC ; NSFC ; NSFC ; NSFC ; NSFC ; NSFC ; NSFC ; NSFC |
| 源URL | [http://ir.bao.ac.cn/handle/114a11/24969]  |
| 专题 | 中国科学院国家天文台 |
| 通讯作者 | Tan, Baolin |
| 作者单位 | 1.Chinese Acad Sci, Natl Astron Observ, CAS Key Lab Solar Act, Datun Rd A20, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China 2.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Sch Astron & Space Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Tan, Baolin. The characteristics of valley phase as predictor of the forthcoming solar cycle[J]. ADVANCES IN SPACE RESEARCH,2019,63(1):617-625. |
| APA | Tan, Baolin.(2019).The characteristics of valley phase as predictor of the forthcoming solar cycle.ADVANCES IN SPACE RESEARCH,63(1),617-625. |
| MLA | Tan, Baolin."The characteristics of valley phase as predictor of the forthcoming solar cycle".ADVANCES IN SPACE RESEARCH 63.1(2019):617-625. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：国家天文台
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