A Decline Phase Modeling for the Prediction of Solar Cycle 25
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Han, Y. B.; Yin, Z. Q. |
| 刊名 | SOLAR PHYSICS
 |
| 出版日期 | 2019-08-01 |
| 卷号 | 294期号:8页码:14 |
| 关键词 | Solar activity Prediction Descending rate of SSN Solar cycle |
| ISSN号 | 0038-0938 |
| DOI | 10.1007/s11207-019-1494-7 |
| 英文摘要 | We use the Vondrak smoothing method and the V2.0 version of the monthly mean sunspot number (SSN) to produce a series of smoothed SSN (denoted SSN-VS), which closely mimics the 13-month running mean SSN. SSN-VS is then used to determine the characteristics of solar cycles. In particular, we find that our simulations for the past seven solar cycles yield predictions with relatively small errors. Applying the technique to the descending portion (i.e. the 20 months following SSN-VS = 70) of the present Solar Cycle 24, we make predictions for the next Solar Cycle 25. In particular, we find, assuming that Solar Cycle 25 is not a statistical outlier, that: 1) the sunspot minimum occurrence is expected around 2019.188 +/- 0.98) the sunspot maximum occurrence is expected around 2023.918 +/- 1.64years, and 3) a sunspot maximum value of about 228.8 +/- 40.5units of sunspot number is expected. |
| WOS关键词 | SUNSPOT NUMBERS ; MAXIMUM ; AMPLITUDE ; GROWTH ; SIZE |
| 资助项目 | National Basic Research Program of China[2012CB957801] |
| WOS研究方向 | Astronomy & Astrophysics |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000482409300002 |
| 出版者 | SPRINGER |
| 资助机构 | National Basic Research Program of China ; National Basic Research Program of China ; National Basic Research Program of China ; National Basic Research Program of China ; National Basic Research Program of China ; National Basic Research Program of China ; National Basic Research Program of China ; National Basic Research Program of China |
| 源URL | [http://ir.bao.ac.cn/handle/114a11/27692]  |
| 专题 | 中国科学院国家天文台 |
| 通讯作者 | Han, Y. B. |
| 作者单位 | Chinese Acad Sci, Natl Astron Observ China, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Han, Y. B.,Yin, Z. Q.. A Decline Phase Modeling for the Prediction of Solar Cycle 25[J]. SOLAR PHYSICS,2019,294(8):14. |
| APA | Han, Y. B.,&Yin, Z. Q..(2019).A Decline Phase Modeling for the Prediction of Solar Cycle 25.SOLAR PHYSICS,294(8),14. |
| MLA | Han, Y. B.,et al."A Decline Phase Modeling for the Prediction of Solar Cycle 25".SOLAR PHYSICS 294.8(2019):14. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：国家天文台
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