predictingthestartandmaximumamplitudeofsolarcycle24usingsimilarphasesandacyclegrouping
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | JiaLong Wang2; WeiGuo Zong1; GuiMing Le1; HaiJuan Zhao1; YunQiu Tang1; Yang Zhang1 |
| 刊名 | researchinastronomyandastrophysics
 |
| 出版日期 | 2009 |
| 卷号 | 9期号:2页码:133 |
| ISSN号 | 1674-4527 |
| 英文摘要 | We find that the solar cycles 9, 11, and 20 are similar to cycle 23 in their respective descending phases. Using this similarity and the observed data of smoothed monthly mean sunspot numbers (SMSNs) available for the descending phase of cycle 23, we make a date calibration for the average time sequence made of the three descending phases of the three cycles, and predict the start of March or April 2008 for cycle 24. For the three cycles, we also find a linear correlation of the length of the descending phase of a cycle with the difference between the maximum epoch of this cycle and that of its next cycle. Using this relationship along with the known relationship between the rise-time and the maximum amplitude of a slowly rising solar cycle, we predict the maximum SMSN of cycle 24 of 100.2 +/- 7.5. to appear during the period from May to October 2012. |
| 资助项目 | [National Natural Science Foundation of China] ; [National Basic Research Program of China] |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 源URL | [http://ir.bao.ac.cn/handle/114a11/42951]  |
| 专题 | 中国科学院国家天文台 |
| 作者单位 | 1.National Center for Space Weather, China Meteorological Administration 2.中国科学院国家天文台 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | JiaLong Wang,WeiGuo Zong,GuiMing Le,et al. predictingthestartandmaximumamplitudeofsolarcycle24usingsimilarphasesandacyclegrouping[J]. researchinastronomyandastrophysics,2009,9(2):133. |
| APA | JiaLong Wang,WeiGuo Zong,GuiMing Le,HaiJuan Zhao,YunQiu Tang,&Yang Zhang.(2009).predictingthestartandmaximumamplitudeofsolarcycle24usingsimilarphasesandacyclegrouping.researchinastronomyandastrophysics,9(2),133. |
| MLA | JiaLong Wang,et al."predictingthestartandmaximumamplitudeofsolarcycle24usingsimilarphasesandacyclegrouping".researchinastronomyandastrophysics 9.2(2009):133. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：国家天文台
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