The Prediction of Maximum Amplitudes of Solar Cycles and the Maximum Amplitude of Solar Cycle 24
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Gong Jancun1; Le Guiming1; Sun Jinglan2; Wang Jialong2; Liu Siqing1 |
| 刊名 | Chinese Journal of Astronomy and Astrophysics
 |
| 出版日期 | 2002 |
| 卷号 | 2期号:6页码:557 |
| ISSN号 | 1009-9271 |
| 英文摘要 | We present a brief review of predictions of solar cycle maximum amplitude with a lead time of 2 years or more. It is pointed out that a precise prediction of the maximum amplitude with such a lead-time is still an open question despite progress made since the 1960s. A method of prediction using statistical characteristics of solar cycles is developed: the solar,cycles are divided into two groups, a high rising velocity (HRV) group and a low rising velocity (LRV) group, depending on the rising velocity in the ascending phase for a given duration of the ascending phase. The amplitude of Solar Cycle 24 can be predicted after the start of the cycle using the formula derived in this paper. Now, about 5 years before the start of the cycle, we can make a preliminary prediction of 83.2-119.4 for its maximum amplitude. |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 源URL | [http://ir.bao.ac.cn/handle/114a11/52252]  |
| 专题 | 中国科学院国家天文台 |
| 作者单位 | 1.中国科学院 2.中国科学院国家天文台 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Gong Jancun,Le Guiming,Sun Jinglan,et al. The Prediction of Maximum Amplitudes of Solar Cycles and the Maximum Amplitude of Solar Cycle 24[J]. Chinese Journal of Astronomy and Astrophysics,2002,2(6):557. |
| APA | Gong Jancun,Le Guiming,Sun Jinglan,Wang Jialong,&Liu Siqing.(2002).The Prediction of Maximum Amplitudes of Solar Cycles and the Maximum Amplitude of Solar Cycle 24.Chinese Journal of Astronomy and Astrophysics,2(6),557. |
| MLA | Gong Jancun,et al."The Prediction of Maximum Amplitudes of Solar Cycles and the Maximum Amplitude of Solar Cycle 24".Chinese Journal of Astronomy and Astrophysics 2.6(2002):557. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：国家天文台
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