中国科学院机构知识库网格
Chinese Academy of Sciences Institutional Repositories Grid
Predicting the 25th solar cycle using deep learning methods based on sunspot area data

文献类型:期刊论文

作者Li, Qiang1; Wan, Miao1; Zeng, Shu-Guang1; Zheng, Sheng1; Deng LH(邓林华)2
刊名RESEARCH IN ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS
出版日期2021-08
卷号21期号:7
关键词Sun activity Sun solar cycle prediction Sun sunspot area Method deep neural network
ISSN号1674-4527
DOI10.1088/1674-4527/21/7/184
产权排序第2完成单位
文献子类Article
英文摘要

It is a significant task to predict the solar activity for space weather and solar physics. All kinds of approaches have been used to forecast solar activities, and they have been applied to many areas such as the solar dynamo of simulation and space mission planning. In this paper, we employ the long-short-term memory (LSTM) and neural network autoregression (NNAR) deep learning methods to predict the upcoming 25th solar cycle using the sunspot area (SSA) data during the period of May 1874 to December 2020. Our results show that the 25th solar cycle will be 55% stronger than Solar Cycle 24 with a maximum sunspot area of 3115 +/- 401 and the cycle reaching its peak in October 2022 by using the LSTM method. It also shows that deep learning algorithms perform better than the other commonly used methods and have high application value.

学科主题天文学 ; 太阳与太阳系 ; 计算机科学技术 ; 人工智能
URL标识查看原文
出版地20A DATUN RD, CHAOYANG, BEIJING, 100012, PEOPLES R CHINA
资助项目National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaNational Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC)[U2031202] ; National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaNational Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC)[U1731124] ; National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaNational Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC)[U1531247] ; special foundation work of the Ministry of Science and Technology of the People's Republic of China[2014FY120300] ; 13th Five-year Informatization Plan of Chinese Academy of Sciences[XXH13505-04]
WOS研究方向Astronomy & Astrophysics
语种英语
WOS记录号WOS:000691271400001
出版者NATL ASTRONOMICAL OBSERVATORIES, CHIN ACAD SCIENCES
资助机构National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaNational Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC)[U2031202, U1731124, U1531247] ; special foundation work of the Ministry of Science and Technology of the People's Republic of China[2014FY120300] ; 13th Five-year Informatization Plan of Chinese Academy of Sciences[XXH13505-04]
版本出版稿
源URL[http://ir.ynao.ac.cn/handle/114a53/24558]  
专题云南天文台_抚仙湖太阳观测站
通讯作者Zeng, Shu-Guang
作者单位1.College of Science, China Three Gorges University, Yichang 443002, China;
2.Yunnan Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Kunming 650216, China
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Li, Qiang,Wan, Miao,Zeng, Shu-Guang,et al. Predicting the 25th solar cycle using deep learning methods based on sunspot area data[J]. RESEARCH IN ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS,2021,21(7).
APA Li, Qiang,Wan, Miao,Zeng, Shu-Guang,Zheng, Sheng,&Deng LH.(2021).Predicting the 25th solar cycle using deep learning methods based on sunspot area data.RESEARCH IN ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS,21(7).
MLA Li, Qiang,et al."Predicting the 25th solar cycle using deep learning methods based on sunspot area data".RESEARCH IN ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS 21.7(2021).

入库方式: OAI收割

来源:云南天文台

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