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Contribution of the location and spatial pattern of initial error to uncertainties in El Nino predictions

文献类型：期刊论文

作者Yu, Yanshan1; Mu, Mu1; Duan, Wansuo2; Gong, Tingting1
刊名JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-OCEANS
出版日期2012-06-26
卷号117页码:C06018
关键词SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURE NONLINEAR OPTIMAL PERTURBATION SINGULAR VECTOR ANALYSIS ENSO PREDICTABILITY COUPLED MODEL THERMOHALINE CIRCULATION SOUTHERN OSCILLATION OPTIMAL-GROWTH STABILITY SENSITIVITY
ISSN号0148-0227
通讯作者Gong, TT (reprint author), Chinese Acad Sci, Key Lab Ocean Circulat & Wave Studies, Inst Oceanol, Qingdao 266071, Peoples R China.
英文摘要With the Zebiak-Cane model, the contribution of the location and spatial pattern of initial error in sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) to uncertainty in El Nino predictions is investigated using an approach based on conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP), which seeks to find the initial error (i.e., the CNOP error) that satisfies a given constraint and that causes the largest prediction error at the prediction time. The computed CNOP error of SSTA has a dipole pattern in the equatorial central and eastern Pacific. The initial error from the equatorial central and eastern Pacific tends to grow more significantly than those from other locations. Because of the contribution of annual mean states the location of the initial error plays an important role in the error evolution; e. g., the shallow annual mean thermocline in the eastern Pacific favors feedback between the thermocline and sea surface temperature. Meanwhile, the specific dipole structure of the initial error is also crucial for optimal error growth. Even with the same magnitude as the CNOP error, random initial error in the equatorial central and eastern Pacific does not evolve significantly over time. Initial errors of SSTA with a similar spatial pattern to the CNOP error (i.e., the dipole pattern of SSTA error) give rise to larger prediction errors than those without similar spatial pattern do. Consequently, the magnitude of the prediction error at the prediction time depends on the combined effects of the location and spatial pattern of the initial error. If additional observation instruments are deployed to observe sea surface temperature with limited coverage, they should preferentially be deployed in the equatorial central and eastern Pacific.
学科主题Oceanography
收录类别SCI
原文出处10.1029/2011JC007758
语种英语
WOS记录号WOS:000306002900002
公开日期2013-09-24
源URL[http://ir.qdio.ac.cn/handle/337002/12134]  
专题海洋研究所_海洋环流与波动重点实验室
作者单位1.Chinese Acad Sci, Key Lab Ocean Circulat & Wave Studies, Inst Oceanol, Qingdao 266071, Peoples R China
2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, LASG, Beijing, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714		 Yu, Yanshan,Mu, Mu,Duan, Wansuo,et al. Contribution of the location and spatial pattern of initial error to uncertainties in El Nino predictions[J]. JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-OCEANS,2012,117:C06018.
APA Yu, Yanshan,Mu, Mu,Duan, Wansuo,&Gong, Tingting.(2012).Contribution of the location and spatial pattern of initial error to uncertainties in El Nino predictions.JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-OCEANS,117,C06018.
MLA Yu, Yanshan,et al."Contribution of the location and spatial pattern of initial error to uncertainties in El Nino predictions".JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-OCEANS 117(2012):C06018.

入库方式： OAI收割

来源：海洋研究所

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