The roles of spatial locations and patterns of initial errors in the uncertainties of tropical cyclone forecasts
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Chen Boyu2,3; Mu Mu1,2 |
| 刊名 | ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
 |
| 出版日期 | 2012 |
| 卷号 | 29期号:1页码:63-78 |
| 关键词 | sensitive area conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation CNOP uncertainty of initial conditions nonlinear development |
| ISSN号 | 0256-1530 |
| 通讯作者 | Mu, M (reprint author), Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Oceanol, Key Lab Ocean Circulat & Wave, Qingdao 266071, Peoples R China. |
| 英文摘要 | In this study, a series of sensitivity experiments were performed for two tropical cyclones (TCs), TC Longwang (2005) and TC Sinlaku (2008), to explore the roles of locations and patterns of initial errors in uncertainties of TC forecasts. Specifically, three types of initial errors were generated and three types of sensitive areas were determined using conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP), first singular vector (FSV), and composite singular vector (CSV) methods. Additionally, random initial errors in randomly selected areas were considered. Based on these four types of initial errors and areas, we designed and performed 16 experiments to investigate the impacts of locations and patterns of initial errors on the nonlinear developments of the errors, and to determine which type of initial errors and areas has the greatest impact on TC forecasts. |
| 学科主题 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
| 收录类别 | SCI |
| 原文出处 | 10.1007/s00376-011-0201-x |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000298387000007 |
| 公开日期 | 2013-09-24 |
| 源URL | [http://ir.qdio.ac.cn/handle/337002/12198]  |
| 专题 | 海洋研究所_海洋环流与波动重点实验室 |
| 作者单位 | 1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Oceanol, Key Lab Ocean Circulat & Wave, Qingdao 266071, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, Natl Key Lab Numer Modeling Atmospher Sci & Geoph, Beijing 100029, Peoples R China 3.Chinese Acad Sci, Grad Univ, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Chen Boyu,Mu Mu. The roles of spatial locations and patterns of initial errors in the uncertainties of tropical cyclone forecasts[J]. ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES,2012,29(1):63-78. |
| APA | Chen Boyu,&Mu Mu.(2012).The roles of spatial locations and patterns of initial errors in the uncertainties of tropical cyclone forecasts.ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES,29(1),63-78. |
| MLA | Chen Boyu,et al."The roles of spatial locations and patterns of initial errors in the uncertainties of tropical cyclone forecasts".ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES 29.1(2012):63-78. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：海洋研究所
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