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Assessing China's efforts to pursue the 1.5 degrees C warming limit

文献类型：期刊论文

作者Duan, Hongbo16; Zhou, Sheng15; Jiang, Kejun14; Bertram, Christoph13; Harmsen, Mathijs11,12; Kriegler, Elmar10,13; van Vuuren, Detlef P.11,12; Wang, Shouyang9,16; Fujimori, Shinichiro6,7,8; Tavoni, Massimo4,5
刊名SCIENCE
出版日期2021-04-23
卷号372期号:6540页码:378-+
ISSN号0036-8075
DOI10.1126/science.aba8767
英文摘要Given the increasing interest in keeping global warming below 1.5 degrees C, a key question is what this would mean for China's emission pathway, energy restructuring, and decarbonization. By conducting a multimodel study, we find that the 1.5 degrees C-consistent goal would require China to reduce its carbon emissions and energy consumption by more than 90 and 39%, respectively, compared with the "no policy" case. Negative emission technologies play an important role in achieving near-zero emissions, with captured carbon accounting on average for 20% of the total reductions in 2050. Our multimodel comparisons reveal large differences in necessary emission reductions across sectors, whereas what is consistent is that the power sector is required to achieve full decarbonization by 2050. The cross-model averages indicate that China's accumulated policy costs may amount to 2.8 to 5.7% of its gross domestic product by 2050, given the 1.5 degrees C warming limit.
资助项目National Natural Science Foundation of China[71874177] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[72022019] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[71874096] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[71988101] ; National Key Research and Development Program of China[2020YFA0608603] ; Environment Research and Technology Development Fund of the Environmental Restoration and Conservation Agency of Japan[JPMEERF20202002]
WOS研究方向Science & Technology - Other Topics
语种英语
WOS记录号WOS:000645009800037
出版者AMER ASSOC ADVANCEMENT SCIENCE
源URL[http://ir.amss.ac.cn/handle/2S8OKBNM/58734]  
专题中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院
通讯作者Duan, Hongbo; Zhou, Sheng; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Wang, Shouyang
作者单位1.Pacific Northwest Natl Lab, College Pk, MD 20740 USA
2.Univ Maryland, Joint Global Change Res Inst, College Pk, MD 20740 USA
3.European Commiss, Joint Res Ctr JRC, E-41092 Seville, Spain
4.Fdn Ctr Euromediterraneo Cambiamenti Climat, RFF CMCC European Inst Econ & Environm, I-20123 Milan, Italy
5.Politecn Milan, Dept Management Econ & Ind Engn, I-20123 Milan, Italy
6.Int Inst Appl Syst Anal, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria
7.Natl Inst Environm Studies, Ctr Social & Environm Syst Res, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 3058506, Japan
8.Kyoto Univ, Dept Environm Engn, Kyoto 6158540, Japan
9.Chinese Acad Sci, Acad Math & Syst Sci, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China
10.Univ Potsdam, Fac Econ & Social Sci, D-14482 Potsdam, Germany
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714		 Duan, Hongbo,Zhou, Sheng,Jiang, Kejun,et al. Assessing China's efforts to pursue the 1.5 degrees C warming limit[J]. SCIENCE,2021,372(6540):378-+.
APA Duan, Hongbo.,Zhou, Sheng.,Jiang, Kejun.,Bertram, Christoph.,Harmsen, Mathijs.,...&Edmonds, James.(2021).Assessing China's efforts to pursue the 1.5 degrees C warming limit.SCIENCE,372(6540),378-+.
MLA Duan, Hongbo,et al."Assessing China's efforts to pursue the 1.5 degrees C warming limit".SCIENCE 372.6540(2021):378-+.

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来源：数学与系统科学研究院

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