Temperature increase reduces global yields of major crops in four independent estimates
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Zhao, Chuang; Liu, Bing6,7,8,9,10; Piao, Shilong4,5; Wang, Xuhui; Lobell, David B.; Huang, Yao2; Huang, Mengtian; Yao, Yitong; Bassu, Simona11; Ciais, Philippe12 |
| 刊名 | PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
 |
| 出版日期 | 2017 |
| 卷号 | 114期号:35页码:9326-9331 |
| ISSN号 | 0027-8424 |
| 关键词 | climate change impact global food security major food crops temperature increase yield |
| DOI | 10.1371/journal.pone.0177553 |
| 文献子类 | Article |
| 英文摘要 | Wheat, rice, maize, and soybean provide two-thirds of human caloric intake. Assessing the impact of global temperature increase on production of these crops is therefore critical to maintaining global food supply, but different studies have yielded different results. Here, we investigated the impacts of temperature on yields of the four crops by compiling extensive published results from four analytical methods: global grid-based and local point-based models, statistical regressions, and field-warming experiments. Results from the different methods consistently showed negative temperature impacts on crop yield at the global scale, generally underpinned by similar impacts at country and site scales. Without CO2 fertilization, effective adaptation, and genetic improvement, each degree-Celsius increase in global mean temperature would, on average, reduce global yields of wheat by 6.0%, rice by 3.2%, maize by 7.4%, and soybean by 3.1%. Results are highly heterogeneous across crops and geographical areas, with some positive impact estimates. Multi-method analyses improved the confidence in assessments of future climate impacts on global major crops and suggest crop-and region-specific adaptation strategies to ensure food security for an increasing world population. |
| 学科主题 | Science & Technology - Other Topics |
| 出版地 | WASHINGTON |
| WOS关键词 | CLIMATE-CHANGE ; WHEAT YIELD ; IMPACTS ; GROWTH ; RANGE ; FOOD |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 出版者 | NATL ACAD SCIENCES |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000402061500031 |
| 资助机构 | National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaNational Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC) [41530528, 41561134016] ; 111 ProjectMinistry of Education, China - 111 Project [B14001, B16026] ; National Youth Top-Notch Talent Support Program in China ; Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR) Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food SecurityCGIAR ; CGIAR Research Program on Wheat and the Wheat InitiativeCGIAR ; National High-Tech Research and Development Program of ChinaNational High Technology Research and Development Program of China [2013AA102404] ; Priority Academic Program Development of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions ; MACMIT (climate mitigation in agricultural production systems through sustainable resource management) Project [01LN1317A] ; German Federal Ministry of Education and ResearchFederal Ministry of Education & Research (BMBF) ; European Research Council Synergy GrantEuropean Research Council (ERC) [ERC-SyG-2013-610028 IMBALANCE-P] ; French Agence Nationale de la Recherche (ANR) Convergence Lab Changement climatique et usage des terres (CLAND)French National Research Agency (ANR) ; German Science Foundation Project [EW 119/5-1] ; Joint Programming Initiative for Agriculture, Climate Change, and Food Security Modelling European Agriculture ; Climate Change for Food Security Project through German Federal Ministry of Food and Agriculture Grant [2815ERA01J] |
| 源URL | [http://ir.ibcas.ac.cn/handle/2S10CLM1/22255]  |
| 专题 | 植被与环境变化国家重点实验室 |
| 作者单位 | 1.Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, Climate Impacts & Vulnerabil, D-14473 Potsdam, Germany 2.Lobell, David B.] Stanford Univ, Dept Earth Syst Sci, Ctr Food Secur & Environm, Stanford, CA 94305 USA 3.Chinese Acad Sci, Ctr Excellence Tibetan Earth Sci, Beijing 100085, Peoples R China 4.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Tibetan Plateau Res, Key Lab Alpine Ecol & Biodivers, Beijing 100085, Peoples R China 5.Univ Florida, Agr & Biol Engn Dept, Gainesville, FL 32611 USA 6.Nanjing Agr Univ, Jiangsu Collaborat Innovat Ctr Modern Crop Prod, Nanjing 210095, Jiangsu, Peoples R China 7.Nanjing Agr Univ, Jiangsu Key Lab Informat Agr, Nanjing 210095, Jiangsu, Peoples R China 8.Nanjing Agr Univ, Key Lab Crop Syst Anal & Decis Making, Minist Agr, Nanjing 210095, Jiangsu, Peoples R China 9.Nanjing Agr Univ, Natl Engn & Technol Ctr Informat Agr, Nanjing 210095, Jiangsu, Peoples R China 10.Peking Univ, Sino French Inst Earth Syst Sci, Coll Urban & Environm Sci, Beijing 100871, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Zhao, Chuang,Liu, Bing,Piao, Shilong,et al. Temperature increase reduces global yields of major crops in four independent estimates[J]. PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA,2017,114(35):9326-9331. |
| APA | Zhao, Chuang.,Liu, Bing.,Piao, Shilong.,Wang, Xuhui.,Lobell, David B..,...&Asseng, Senthold.(2017).Temperature increase reduces global yields of major crops in four independent estimates.PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA,114(35),9326-9331. |
| MLA | Zhao, Chuang,et al."Temperature increase reduces global yields of major crops in four independent estimates".PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA 114.35(2017):9326-9331. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：植物研究所
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