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Plausible rice yield losses under future climate warming

文献类型：期刊论文

作者Zhao, Chuang; Piao, Shilong8,9; Wang, Xuhui; Huang, Yao10; Ciais, Philippe11; Elliott, Joshua1; Huang, Mengtian; Janssens, Ivan A.; Li, Tao3; Lian, Xu
刊名NATURE PLANTS
出版日期2017
卷号3期号:1
ISSN号2055-026X
DOI10.1111/nph.14808
文献子类Article
英文摘要Rice is the staple food for more than 50% of the world's population1-3. Reliable prediction of changes in rice yield is thus central for maintaining global food security. This is an extraordinary challenge. Here, we compare the sensitivity of rice yield to temperature increase derived from field warming experiments and three modelling approaches: statistical models, local crop models and global gridded crop models. Field warming experiments produce a substantial rice yield loss under warming, with an average temperature sensitivity of -5.2 +/- 1.4% K-1. Local crop models give a similar sensitivity (-6.3 +/- 0.4% K-1), but statistical and global gridded crop models both suggest less negative impacts of warming on yields (-0.8 +/- 0.3% and -2.4 +/- 3.7% K-1, respectively). Using data from field warming experiments, we further propose a conditional probability approach to constrain the large range of global gridded crop model results for the future yield changes in response to warming by the end of the century (from -1.3% to -9.3% K-1). The constraint implies a more negative response to warming (-8.3 +/- 1.4% K-1) and reduces the spread of the model ensemble by 33%. This yield reduction exceeds that estimated by the International Food Policy Research Institute assessment (-4.2 to -6.4% K-1) (ref. 4). Our study suggests that without CO2 fertilization, effective adaptation and genetic improvement, severe rice yield losses are plausible under intensive climate warming scenarios.
学科主题Plant Sciences
出版地LONDON
电子版国际标准刊号2055-0278
WOS关键词INFRARED HEATER ; CARBON-DIOXIDE ; FOOD SECURITY ; CROP YIELDS ; IMPACT ; METAANALYSIS ; ADAPTATION ; ECOSYSTEM ; MODELS ; MAIZE
语种英语
WOS记录号WOS:000427294000001
出版者NATURE PUBLISHING GROUP
资助机构National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaNational Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC) [41530528, 41561134016] ; 111 projectMinistry of Education, China - 111 Project [B14001] ; National Youth Top-notch Talent Support Program in China ; European Research Council Synergy grantEuropean Research Council (ERC) [ERC-2013-SYG-610028] ; MACMIT project [01LN1317A] ; German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF)Federal Ministry of Education & Research (BMBF)
源URL[http://ir.ibcas.ac.cn/handle/2S10CLM1/22342]  
专题植被与环境变化国家重点实验室
作者单位1.UVSQ, CNRS, CEA, Lab Sci Climat & Environm, F-91191 Gif Sur Yvette, France
2.Univ Chicago, Computat Inst, Chicago, IL 60637 USA
3.Janssens, Ivan A.] Univ Antwerp, Dept Biol, Univ Pl 1, B-2610 Antwerp, Belgium
4.Int Rice Res Inst, Los Banos 4031, Laguna, Philippines
5.Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, D-14473 Potsdam, Germany
6.CREAF, Barcelona 08193, Catalonia, Spain
7.UAB, CSIC, CEAB, CREAF,Global Ecol Unit, Barcelona 08193, Catalonia, Spain
8.Peking Univ, Coll Urban & Environm Sci, Sino French Inst Earth Syst Sci, Beijing 100871, Peoples R China
9.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Tibetan Plateau Res, Key Lab Alpine Ecol & Biodivers, Beijing 100085, Peoples R China
10.Chinese Acad Sci, Ctr Excellence Tibetan Earth Sci, Beijing 100085, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714		 Zhao, Chuang,Piao, Shilong,Wang, Xuhui,et al. Plausible rice yield losses under future climate warming[J]. NATURE PLANTS,2017,3(1).
APA Zhao, Chuang.,Piao, Shilong.,Wang, Xuhui.,Huang, Yao.,Ciais, Philippe.,...&Penuelas, Josep.(2017).Plausible rice yield losses under future climate warming.NATURE PLANTS,3(1).
MLA Zhao, Chuang,et al."Plausible rice yield losses under future climate warming".NATURE PLANTS 3.1(2017).

入库方式： OAI收割

来源：植物研究所

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