A New Two-Stage Approach with Boosting and Model Averaging for Interval-Valued Crude Oil Prices Forecasting in Uncertainty Environments
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Huang, Bai1; Sun, Yuying2,3,4; Wang, Shouyang2,3,4 |
| 刊名 | FRONTIERS IN ENERGY RESEARCH
 |
| 出版日期 | 2021-08-19 |
| 卷号 | 9页码:11 |
| 关键词 | crude oil prices forecasting forecast combination interval-valued time series model averaging vector L2-boosting |
| ISSN号 | 2296-598X |
| DOI | 10.3389/fenrg.2021.707937 |
| 英文摘要 | In view of the intrinsic complexity of the oil market, crude oil prices are influenced by numerous factors that make forecasting very difficult. Recognizing this challenge, numerous approaches have been introduced, but little work has been done concerning the interval-valued prices. To capture the underlying characteristics of crude oil price movements, this paper proposes a two-stage forecasting procedure to forecast interval-valued time series, which generalizes point-valued forecasts to incorporate uncertainty and variability. The empirical results show that our proposed approach significantly outperforms all the benchmark models in terms of both forecasting accuracy and robustness analysis. These results can provide references for decision-makers to understand the trends of crude oil prices and improve the efficiency of economic activities. |
| 资助项目 | National Natural Science Foundation of China[71973116] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[71988101] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[72073126] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[72091212] ; funding of Forecasting and Monitoring of COVID-19 in countries along Belt and Road and Related Economic Impacts[ANSO-SBA-2020-12] ; Central University of Finance and Economics |
| WOS研究方向 | Energy & Fuels |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000693633200001 |
| 出版者 | FRONTIERS MEDIA SA |
| 源URL | [http://ir.amss.ac.cn/handle/2S8OKBNM/59251]  |
| 专题 | 中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院 |
| 通讯作者 | Sun, Yuying |
| 作者单位 | 1.Cent Univ Finance Econ, Sch Math & Stat, Beijing, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Acad Math & Syst Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China 3.Chinese Acad Sci, Ctr Forecasting Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China 4.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Sch Econ & Management, Beijing, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Huang, Bai,Sun, Yuying,Wang, Shouyang. A New Two-Stage Approach with Boosting and Model Averaging for Interval-Valued Crude Oil Prices Forecasting in Uncertainty Environments[J]. FRONTIERS IN ENERGY RESEARCH,2021,9:11. |
| APA | Huang, Bai,Sun, Yuying,&Wang, Shouyang.(2021).A New Two-Stage Approach with Boosting and Model Averaging for Interval-Valued Crude Oil Prices Forecasting in Uncertainty Environments.FRONTIERS IN ENERGY RESEARCH,9,11. |
| MLA | Huang, Bai,et al."A New Two-Stage Approach with Boosting and Model Averaging for Interval-Valued Crude Oil Prices Forecasting in Uncertainty Environments".FRONTIERS IN ENERGY RESEARCH 9(2021):11. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：数学与系统科学研究院
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