Decomposition Methods for Tourism Demand Forecasting: A Comparative Study
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Zhang, Chengyuan1; Li, Mingchen2,3; Sun, Shaolong4; Tang, Ling5; Wang, Shouyang2,3,6 |
| 刊名 | JOURNAL OF TRAVEL RESEARCH
 |
| 出版日期 | 2021-10-18 |
| 页码 | 18 |
| 关键词 | tourism demand forecasting decomposition methods variational mode decomposition decomposition and ensemble machine learning |
| ISSN号 | 0047-2875 |
| DOI | 10.1177/00472875211036194 |
| 英文摘要 | Decomposition methods are extensively used for processing the complex patterns of tourism demand data. Given tourism demand data's intrinsic complexity, it is critical to theoretically understand how different decomposition methods provide solutions. However, a comprehensive comparison of decomposition methods in tourism demand forecasting is still lacking. Hence, this study systematically investigates the forecasting performance of decomposition methods in tourism demand. Nine popular decomposition methods and six forecasting methods are employed, and their forecasting performance is compared. With Hong Kong visitor arrivals from eight major sources as a sample, three main conclusions are obtained from empirical results. First, all the decomposition methods generally outperform benchmark at all horizons, in both the level and directional forecasting. Second, decomposition methods can be divided into four categories based on forecasting accuracy. Finally, variational mode decomposition method is consistently superior to other eight decomposition methods and can provide the best forecasts in all cases. |
| 资助项目 | National Natural Science Foundation of China[71988101] ; Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities[xpt012020022] |
| WOS研究方向 | Social Sciences - Other Topics |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000710454800001 |
| 出版者 | SAGE PUBLICATIONS INC |
| 源URL | [http://ir.amss.ac.cn/handle/2S8OKBNM/59450]  |
| 专题 | 中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院 |
| 通讯作者 | Sun, Shaolong |
| 作者单位 | 1.Xidian Univ, Sch Econ & Management, Xian, Shaanxi, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Acad Math & Syst Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China 3.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Sch Econ & Management, Beijing, Peoples R China 4.Xi An Jiao Tong Univ, Sch Management, 28 Xianning West Rd, Xian 710049, Peoples R China 5.Beihang Univ, Sch Econ & Management, Beijing, Peoples R China 6.Chinese Acad Sci, Ctr Forecasting Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Zhang, Chengyuan,Li, Mingchen,Sun, Shaolong,et al. Decomposition Methods for Tourism Demand Forecasting: A Comparative Study[J]. JOURNAL OF TRAVEL RESEARCH,2021:18. |
| APA | Zhang, Chengyuan,Li, Mingchen,Sun, Shaolong,Tang, Ling,&Wang, Shouyang.(2021).Decomposition Methods for Tourism Demand Forecasting: A Comparative Study.JOURNAL OF TRAVEL RESEARCH,18. |
| MLA | Zhang, Chengyuan,et al."Decomposition Methods for Tourism Demand Forecasting: A Comparative Study".JOURNAL OF TRAVEL RESEARCH (2021):18. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：数学与系统科学研究院
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