Seasonal and trend forecasting of tourist arrivals: An adaptive multiscale ensemble learning approach
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Xing, Guangyuan1; Sun, Shaolong2; Bi, Dan2; Guo, Ju-e2; Wang, Shouyang3,4,5 |
| 刊名 | INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF TOURISM RESEARCH
 |
| 出版日期 | 2022-01-28 |
| 页码 | 18 |
| 关键词 | ensemble learning least square support vector regression seasonality tourism demand forecasting variational mode decomposition |
| ISSN号 | 1099-2340 |
| DOI | 10.1002/jtr.2512 |
| 英文摘要 | In this study, we propose an adaptive multiscale ensemble (AME) learning approach, which consists of variational mode decomposition (VMD) and least square support vector regression (LSSVR) for seasonal and trend forecasting of tourist arrivals. In the formulation of AME learning approach, the original tourist arrival series is decomposed into the trend, seasonal, and remaining volatility components. Then, ARIMA is used to forecast the trend component, SARIMA is used to forecast the seasonal component, and LSSVR is used to forecast the remaining volatility components. The empirical results demonstrate that our proposed AME learning approach can achieve higher forecasting accuracy. |
| 资助项目 | National Natural Science Foundation of China[72101197] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[71988101] ; Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities[SK2021007] |
| WOS研究方向 | Social Sciences - Other Topics |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000748176700001 |
| 出版者 | WILEY |
| 源URL | [http://ir.amss.ac.cn/handle/2S8OKBNM/59917]  |
| 专题 | 中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院 |
| 通讯作者 | Sun, Shaolong |
| 作者单位 | 1.Xi An Jiao Tong Univ, Sch Econ & Finance, Xian, Peoples R China 2.Xi An Jiao Tong Univ, Sch Management, Xian 710049, Peoples R China 3.Chinese Acad Sci, Acad Math & Syst Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China 4.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Sch Econ & Management, Beijing, Peoples R China 5.Chinese Acad Sci, Ctr Forecasting Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Xing, Guangyuan,Sun, Shaolong,Bi, Dan,et al. Seasonal and trend forecasting of tourist arrivals: An adaptive multiscale ensemble learning approach[J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF TOURISM RESEARCH,2022:18. |
| APA | Xing, Guangyuan,Sun, Shaolong,Bi, Dan,Guo, Ju-e,&Wang, Shouyang.(2022).Seasonal and trend forecasting of tourist arrivals: An adaptive multiscale ensemble learning approach.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF TOURISM RESEARCH,18. |
| MLA | Xing, Guangyuan,et al."Seasonal and trend forecasting of tourist arrivals: An adaptive multiscale ensemble learning approach".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF TOURISM RESEARCH (2022):18. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：数学与系统科学研究院
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