On the possibility of predicting flare index and CME velocity using vector magnetograms
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Chen, AnQin1; Wang, JingXiu2,3 |
| 刊名 | SCIENCE CHINA-PHYSICS MECHANICS & ASTRONOMY
 |
| 出版日期 | 2020-02-20 |
| 卷号 | 63期号:6页码:10 |
| 关键词 | sunspots magnetic field flare coronal mass ejection |
| ISSN号 | 1674-7348 |
| DOI | 10.1007/s11433-019-1489-0 |
| 英文摘要 | In this paper, 106 active regions (ARs) in the visible solar hemisphere in solar cycle 24 whose maximum sunspot groups' areas were larger than 400 mu h were selected. The association of their flare index (Iflare), largest flare magnitude (M-flare), and fastest coronal mass ejection (CME) velocity (V-CME) with the vector magnetic field parameters were examined, and attempts were made to predict I-flare, M-flare, and V-CME using the vector magnetograms. I-flare and M-flare were found to have a good correlation with the total photospheric free magnetic energy density (E-free), the length of the magnetic neutral line with a steep horizontal magnetic gradient (L-NL), and the area with strong magnetic shear (A(psi)). I-flare and M-flare were also found to have a best correlation with E-free. However, V-CME displayed a moderate correlation with these three magnetic field parameters with a best correlation with A(psi). Thus, E-free and A(psi) appear to be the best parameters that can be used to predict I-flare (M-flare) and V-CME, respectively. Hence, the multiple linear regression fit is proposed more suitable to predict I-flare and M-flare because of the stronger forecasts obtained than those by the linear fit with one magnetic field parameter for I-flare and M-flare. However, the V-CME forecasts are better obtained through the linear fit with A(psi). The majority of the ARs without any CMEs never produced any flare larger than X1.0 while having a relatively lower E-free, shorter L-NL, and smaller A(psi). This suggests that the larger the largest flare in an AR is, the faster the fastest CME produced by the AR will be. |
| WOS关键词 | MAGNETIC-FIELD PROPERTIES ; QUIET ACTIVE REGIONS ; CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS ; SOLAR-FLARES ; EVOLUTION ; FLUX ; SHEAR ; RECONNECTION ; PRODUCTIVITY ; EMERGENCE |
| 资助项目 | National Natural Science Foundation of China[41327802] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[11573038] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[11873059] ; Strategic Priority Program on Space Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences[XDA15350203] ; Strategic Priority Program on Space Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences[XDA15052200] ; Basic Frontier Scientific Research Programs of Chinese Academy of Sciences[ZDBS-LYSLH013] |
| WOS研究方向 | Physics |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000526409700001 |
| 出版者 | SCIENCE PRESS |
| 资助机构 | National Natural Science Foundation of China ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; Strategic Priority Program on Space Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences ; Strategic Priority Program on Space Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences ; Basic Frontier Scientific Research Programs of Chinese Academy of Sciences ; Basic Frontier Scientific Research Programs of Chinese Academy of Sciences ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; Strategic Priority Program on Space Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences ; Strategic Priority Program on Space Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences ; Basic Frontier Scientific Research Programs of Chinese Academy of Sciences ; Basic Frontier Scientific Research Programs of Chinese Academy of Sciences ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; Strategic Priority Program on Space Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences ; Strategic Priority Program on Space Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences ; Basic Frontier Scientific Research Programs of Chinese Academy of Sciences ; Basic Frontier Scientific Research Programs of Chinese Academy of Sciences ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; Strategic Priority Program on Space Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences ; Strategic Priority Program on Space Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences ; Basic Frontier Scientific Research Programs of Chinese Academy of Sciences ; Basic Frontier Scientific Research Programs of Chinese Academy of Sciences |
| 源URL | [http://ir.bao.ac.cn/handle/114a11/56164]  |
| 专题 | 中国科学院国家天文台 |
| 通讯作者 | Chen, AnQin |
| 作者单位 | 1.China Meteorol Adm, Natl Ctr Space Weather, Key Lab Space Weather, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Key Lab Solar Act, Natl Astron Observ, Beijing 100012, Peoples R China 3.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Chen, AnQin,Wang, JingXiu. On the possibility of predicting flare index and CME velocity using vector magnetograms[J]. SCIENCE CHINA-PHYSICS MECHANICS & ASTRONOMY,2020,63(6):10. |
| APA | Chen, AnQin,&Wang, JingXiu.(2020).On the possibility of predicting flare index and CME velocity using vector magnetograms.SCIENCE CHINA-PHYSICS MECHANICS & ASTRONOMY,63(6),10. |
| MLA | Chen, AnQin,et al."On the possibility of predicting flare index and CME velocity using vector magnetograms".SCIENCE CHINA-PHYSICS MECHANICS & ASTRONOMY 63.6(2020):10. |
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来源：国家天文台
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