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Role of Asymptomatic COVID-19 Cases in Viral Transmission: Findings From a Hierarchical Community Contact Network Model

文献类型：期刊论文

作者Luo, Tianyi1,3; Cao, Zhidong1; Wang, Yuejiao1,3; Zeng, Daniel1; Zhang, Qingpeng2
刊名IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON AUTOMATION SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING
出版日期2021-09-02
页码10
关键词COVID-19 Epidemics Pandemics Sociology Market research Mathematical models Timing Risk management Statistics Asymptomatic patients COVID-19 epidemic rebound strategy evaluation transmission model
ISSN号1545-5955
DOI10.1109/TASE.2021.3106782
通讯作者Cao, Zhidong(zhidong.cao@ia.ac.cn)
英文摘要As part of ongoing efforts to contain the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic, understanding the role of asymptomatic patients in the transmission system is essential for infection control. However, the optimal approach to risk assessment and management of asymptomatic cases remains unclear. This study proposed a Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, No symptoms, Hospitalized and reported, Recovered, Death (SEINRHD) epidemic propagation model. The model was constructed based on epidemiological characteristics of COVID-19 in China and accounting for the heterogeneity of social contact networks. The early community outbreaks in Wuhan were reconstructed and fitted with the actual data. We used this model to assess epidemic control measures for asymptomatic cases in three dimensions. The impact of asymptomatic cases on epidemic propagation was examined based on the effective reproduction number, abnormally high transmission events, and type and structure of transmission. Management of asymptomatic cases can help flatten the infection curve. Tracing 75% of the asymptomatic cases corresponds to a 32.5% overall reduction in new cases (compared with tracing no asymptomatic cases). Regardless of population-wide measures, household transmission is higher than other types of transmission, accounting for an estimated 50% of all cases. The magnitude of tracing of asymptomatic cases is more important than the timing; when all symptomatic patients were traced, tested, and isolated in a timely manner, the overall epidemic was not sensitive to the time of implementing the measures to trace asymptomatic patients. Disease control and prevention within families should be emphasized during an epidemic.
资助项目National Natural Science Foundation of China[72042018] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[91546112] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[71621002] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[72074209] ; Beijing Municipal Natural Science Foundation[L192012]
WOS研究方向Automation & Control Systems
语种英语
WOS记录号WOS:000732900200001
出版者IEEE-INST ELECTRICAL ELECTRONICS ENGINEERS INC
资助机构National Natural Science Foundation of China ; Beijing Municipal Natural Science Foundation
源URL[http://ir.ia.ac.cn/handle/173211/46887]  
专题自动化研究所_复杂系统管理与控制国家重点实验室_互联网大数据与安全信息学研究中心
通讯作者Cao, Zhidong
作者单位1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Automat, State Key Lab Management & Control Complex Syst, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China
2.City Univ Hong Kong, Sch Data Sci, Hong Kong, Peoples R China
3.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Sch Artificial Intelligence, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714		 Luo, Tianyi,Cao, Zhidong,Wang, Yuejiao,et al. Role of Asymptomatic COVID-19 Cases in Viral Transmission: Findings From a Hierarchical Community Contact Network Model[J]. IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON AUTOMATION SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING,2021:10.
APA Luo, Tianyi,Cao, Zhidong,Wang, Yuejiao,Zeng, Daniel,&Zhang, Qingpeng.(2021).Role of Asymptomatic COVID-19 Cases in Viral Transmission: Findings From a Hierarchical Community Contact Network Model.IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON AUTOMATION SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING,10.
MLA Luo, Tianyi,et al."Role of Asymptomatic COVID-19 Cases in Viral Transmission: Findings From a Hierarchical Community Contact Network Model".IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON AUTOMATION SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING (2021):10.

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来源：自动化研究所

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