BACKGROUND: Macrovascular invasion (MaVI) occurs in nearly half of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients at diagnosis or during follow-up, which causes severe disease deterioration, and limits the possibility of surgical approaches. This study aimed to investigate whether computed tomography (CT)-based radiomics analysis could help predict development of MaVI in HCC.

METHODS: A cohort of 226 patients diagnosed with HCC was enrolled from 5 hospitals with complete MaVI and prognosis follow-ups. CT-based radiomics signature was built via multi-strategy machine learning methods. Afterwards, MaVI-related clinical factors and radiomics signature were integrated to construct the final prediction model (CRIM, clinical-radiomics integrated model) via random forest modeling. Cox-regression analysis was used to select independent risk factors to predict the time of MaVI development. Kaplan-Meier analysis was conducted to stratify patients according to the time of MaVI development, progression-free survival (PFS), and overall survival (OS) based on the selected risk factors.

RESULTS: The radiomics signature showed significant improvement for MaVI prediction compared with conventional clinical/radiological predictors (P < 0.001). CRIM could predict MaVI with satisfactory areas under the curve (AUC) of 0.986 and 0.979 in the training (n=154) and external validation (n=72) datasets, respectively. CRIM presented with excellent generalization with AUC of 0.956, 1.000, and 1.000 in each external cohort that accepted disparate CT scanning protocol/manufactory. Peel9_fos_InterquartileRange [hazard ratio (HR)=1.98; P < 0.001] was selected as the independent risk factor. The cox-regression model successfully stratified patients into the high-risk and low-risk groups regarding the time of MaVI development (P < 0.001), PFS (P < 0.001) and OS (P=0.002).

CONCLUSIONS: The CT-based quantitative radiomics analysis could enable high accuracy prediction of subsequent MaVI development in HCC with prognostic implications.