Estimation of COVID-19 Transmission and Advice on Public Health Interventions
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Ji, Qingqing4,5; Zhao, Xu3; Ma, Hanlin3; Liu, Qing3; Liu, Yiwen2,5; Guan, Qiyue1 |
| 刊名 | MATHEMATICS
 |
| 出版日期 | 2021-11-01 |
| 卷号 | 9期号:22页码:18 |
| 关键词 | novel coronavirus epidemic control traffic control measures least square estimation SIR model |
| DOI | 10.3390/math9222849 |
| 英文摘要 | At the end of 2019, an outbreak of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) made a profound impact on the country's production and people's daily lives. Up until now, COVID-19 has not been fully controlled all over the world. Based on the clinical research progress of infectious diseases, combined with epidemiological theories and possible disease control measures, this paper establishes a Susceptible Infected Recovered (SIR) model that meets the characteristics of the transmission of the new coronavirus, using the least square estimation (LSE) method to estimate the model parameters. The simulation results show that quarantine and containment measures as well as vaccine and drug development measures can control the spread of the epidemic effectively. As can be seen from the prediction results of the model, the simulation results of the epidemic development of the whole country and Nanjing are in agreement with the real situation of the epidemic, and the number of confirmed cases is close to the real value. At the same time, the model's prediction of the prevention effect and control measures have shed new light on epidemic prevention and control. |
| 资助项目 | National Natural Science Foundation of China[11801019] |
| WOS研究方向 | Mathematics |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000727377000001 |
| 出版者 | MDPI |
| 源URL | [http://119.78.100.204/handle/2XEOYT63/18040]  |
| 专题 | 中国科学院计算技术研究所期刊论文_英文 |
| 通讯作者 | Zhao, Xu |
| 作者单位 | 1.Cent Comm CPC Natl Acad Governance, Party Sch, Beijing 100091, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Informat Engn, Beijing 100093, Peoples R China 3.Beijing Univ Technol, Fac Sci, Beijing 100124, Peoples R China 4.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Comp Technol, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China 5.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Ji, Qingqing,Zhao, Xu,Ma, Hanlin,et al. Estimation of COVID-19 Transmission and Advice on Public Health Interventions[J]. MATHEMATICS,2021,9(22):18. |
| APA | Ji, Qingqing,Zhao, Xu,Ma, Hanlin,Liu, Qing,Liu, Yiwen,&Guan, Qiyue.(2021).Estimation of COVID-19 Transmission and Advice on Public Health Interventions.MATHEMATICS,9(22),18. |
| MLA | Ji, Qingqing,et al."Estimation of COVID-19 Transmission and Advice on Public Health Interventions".MATHEMATICS 9.22(2021):18. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：计算技术研究所
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