Daily tourism demand forecasting: the impact of complex seasonal patterns and holiday effects
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Liu, Yunhao2,3; Feng, Gengzhong3; Chin, Kwai-Sang2; Sun, Shaolong3; Wang, Shouyang1 |
| 刊名 | CURRENT ISSUES IN TOURISM
 |
| 出版日期 | 2022-04-16 |
| 页码 | 20 |
| ISSN号 | 1368-3500 |
| 关键词 | Tourism demand forecasting daily tourism demand holiday effects seasonal patterns FB Prophet |
| DOI | 10.1080/13683500.2022.2060067 |
| 英文摘要 | Daily tourism demand forecasting can provide important implications for the tourism industry. However, there exist limitations in applying traditional methods to forecast daily tourism demand because of the complex seasonal patterns and holiday effects. In this study, we introduce FB Prophet and apply it to the forecasting of daily tourism demand in the Jiuzhai Valley National Park and Macao from Mainland China. The decomposition result of FB Prophet shows its ability to handle the influence of seasonal patterns and holiday effects. The forecasting results show that considering seasonal patterns, holiday effects, and other predictors can significantly improve the forecasting performance, and FB Prophet outperforms other methods. |
| 资助项目 | National Natural Science Foundation of China[72101197] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[71988101] ; Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities[SK2021007] ; Major Program of National Fund of Philosophy and Social Science of China[20ZD053] |
| WOS研究方向 | Social Sciences - Other Topics |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 出版者 | ROUTLEDGE JOURNALS, TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000782688400001 |
| 源URL | [http://ir.amss.ac.cn/handle/2S8OKBNM/60298]  |
| 专题 | 中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院 |
| 通讯作者 | Sun, Shaolong |
| 作者单位 | 1.Chinese Acad Sci, Acad Math & Syst Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China 2.City Univ Hong Kong, Dept Adv Design & Syst Engn, Kowloon, Hong Kong, Peoples R China 3.Xi An Jiao Tong Univ, Sch Management, Xian, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Liu, Yunhao,Feng, Gengzhong,Chin, Kwai-Sang,et al. Daily tourism demand forecasting: the impact of complex seasonal patterns and holiday effects[J]. CURRENT ISSUES IN TOURISM,2022:20. |
| APA | Liu, Yunhao,Feng, Gengzhong,Chin, Kwai-Sang,Sun, Shaolong,&Wang, Shouyang.(2022).Daily tourism demand forecasting: the impact of complex seasonal patterns and holiday effects.CURRENT ISSUES IN TOURISM,20. |
| MLA | Liu, Yunhao,et al."Daily tourism demand forecasting: the impact of complex seasonal patterns and holiday effects".CURRENT ISSUES IN TOURISM (2022):20. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：数学与系统科学研究院
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