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The Prediction of Day-to-Day Occurrence of Low Latitude Ionospheric Strong Scintillation Using Gradient Boosting Algorithm

文献类型：期刊论文

作者Zhao, Xiukuan2,3,4; Li, Guozhu4,5,6; Xie, Haiyong3,4,5; Hu, Lianhuan4,5; Sun, Wenjie4,5,6; Yang, Sipeng4,5; Li, Yi3,4,5; Ning, Baiqi4,5,7; Takahashi, Hisao1
刊名SPACE WEATHER-THE INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF RESEARCH AND APPLICATIONS
出版日期2021-12-01
卷号19期号:12页码:14
关键词ionospheric scintillation prediction Gradient boosting algorithm Equatorial F layer height
DOI10.1029/2021SW002884
英文摘要Ionospheric scintillations caused by equatorial plasma bubbles (EPBs) can seriously affect various high technology systems based on Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) signals at equatorial and low latitudes. A reliable prediction of ionospheric scintillation occurrence is critical to relieve the effect. Using the long-term ground-based GNSS receiver and ionosonde data collected in the Brazilian longitude sector during 2012-2020, an ionospheric strong scintillation prediction model based on the gradient boosting algorithms extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), light gradient boosting machine (LightGBM), and CatBoost is created and tested. It is for the first time that the XGBoost, LightGBM, and CatBoost are utilized to predict the day-to-day occurrence of regional ionospheric scintillation during post-sunset hours. The relative importance of different parameters affecting EPB/scintillation occurrence for building the prediction model is examined. A comparison of daily scintillation occurrence from the modeled and observed results during 2014 (solar maximum) and 2020 (solar minimum) shows that the gradient boosting algorithms are effective for predicting strong scintillations over low latitude, with a prediction accuracy of similar to 85%. The results suggest that the trained model with input of total electron content, equatorial F layer peak height and critical frequency before sunset could be well employed to predict the occurrence/nonoccurrence of intense scintillations over low latitude after sunset on a daily basis.
WOS关键词EQUATORIAL ; TEC ; GENERATION ; BRAZIL ; DRIFT
资助项目National Natural Science Foundation of China[42020104002] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41727803] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[42074190] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41904141] ; Project of Stable Support for Youth Team in Basic Research Field, CAS[YSBR-018] ; International Partnership Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences[183311KYSB20200003] ; Solar-Terrestrial Environment Research Network (STERN) of the Chinese Academy of Sciences ; Chinese Meridian Project
WOS研究方向Astronomy & Astrophysics ; Geochemistry & Geophysics ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
语种英语
出版者AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION
WOS记录号WOS:000735908200012
资助机构National Natural Science Foundation of China ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; Project of Stable Support for Youth Team in Basic Research Field, CAS ; Project of Stable Support for Youth Team in Basic Research Field, CAS ; International Partnership Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences ; International Partnership Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences ; Solar-Terrestrial Environment Research Network (STERN) of the Chinese Academy of Sciences ; Solar-Terrestrial Environment Research Network (STERN) of the Chinese Academy of Sciences ; Chinese Meridian Project ; Chinese Meridian Project ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; Project of Stable Support for Youth Team in Basic Research Field, CAS ; Project of Stable Support for Youth Team in Basic Research Field, CAS ; International Partnership Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences ; International Partnership Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences ; Solar-Terrestrial Environment Research Network (STERN) of the Chinese Academy of Sciences ; Solar-Terrestrial Environment Research Network (STERN) of the Chinese Academy of Sciences ; Chinese Meridian Project ; Chinese Meridian Project ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; Project of Stable Support for Youth Team in Basic Research Field, CAS ; Project of Stable Support for Youth Team in Basic Research Field, CAS ; International Partnership Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences ; International Partnership Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences ; Solar-Terrestrial Environment Research Network (STERN) of the Chinese Academy of Sciences ; Solar-Terrestrial Environment Research Network (STERN) of the Chinese Academy of Sciences ; Chinese Meridian Project ; Chinese Meridian Project ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; Project of Stable Support for Youth Team in Basic Research Field, CAS ; Project of Stable Support for Youth Team in Basic Research Field, CAS ; International Partnership Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences ; International Partnership Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences ; Solar-Terrestrial Environment Research Network (STERN) of the Chinese Academy of Sciences ; Solar-Terrestrial Environment Research Network (STERN) of the Chinese Academy of Sciences ; Chinese Meridian Project ; Chinese Meridian Project
源URL[http://ir.iggcas.ac.cn/handle/132A11/103959]  
专题地质与地球物理研究所_中国科学院地球与行星物理重点实验室
通讯作者Li, Guozhu
作者单位1.Inst Nacl Pesquisas Espaciais, Div Aeron, Sao Jose Dos Campos, Brazil
2.Chinese Acad Sci, Mohe Observ Geophys, Inst Geol & Geophys, Beijing, Peoples R China
3.Natl Earth Syst Sci Data Ctr, Geophys Ctr, Beijing, Peoples R China
4.Chinese Acad Sci, Key Lab Earth & Planetary Phys, Inst Geol & Geophys, Beijing, Peoples R China
5.Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing Natl Observ Space Environm, Inst Geol & Geophys, Beijing, Peoples R China
6.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Coll Earth & Planetary Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China
7.Chinese Acad Sci, Innovat Acad Earth Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714		 Zhao, Xiukuan,Li, Guozhu,Xie, Haiyong,et al. The Prediction of Day-to-Day Occurrence of Low Latitude Ionospheric Strong Scintillation Using Gradient Boosting Algorithm[J]. SPACE WEATHER-THE INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF RESEARCH AND APPLICATIONS,2021,19(12):14.
APA Zhao, Xiukuan.,Li, Guozhu.,Xie, Haiyong.,Hu, Lianhuan.,Sun, Wenjie.,...&Takahashi, Hisao.(2021).The Prediction of Day-to-Day Occurrence of Low Latitude Ionospheric Strong Scintillation Using Gradient Boosting Algorithm.SPACE WEATHER-THE INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF RESEARCH AND APPLICATIONS,19(12),14.
MLA Zhao, Xiukuan,et al."The Prediction of Day-to-Day Occurrence of Low Latitude Ionospheric Strong Scintillation Using Gradient Boosting Algorithm".SPACE WEATHER-THE INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF RESEARCH AND APPLICATIONS 19.12(2021):14.

入库方式： OAI收割

来源：地质与地球物理研究所

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