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  2. 地质与地球物理研究所
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  4. 中国科学院页岩气与地质工程重点实验室
Universal precursor seismicity pattern before locked-segment rupture and evolutionary rule for landmark earthquakes

文献类型：期刊论文

作者Qin, Siqing1,2; Chen, Hongran1,2,3; Xue, Lei1,2; Yang, Baicun4; Zhang, Ke1,2,3
刊名GEOSCIENCE FRONTIERS
出版日期2022-05-01
卷号13期号:3页码:12
关键词Precursor Locked segment Volume-expansion point Peak-stress point Landmark earthquake
ISSN号1674-9871
DOI10.1016/j.gsf.2021.101314
英文摘要Despite extensive investigations, no precursor patterns for reliably predicting major earthquakes have thus far been identified. Seismogenic locked segments that can accumulate adequate strain energy to cause major earthquakes are highly heterogeneous and low brittle. The progressive cracking of the locked segments with these properties can produce an interesting seismic phenomenon: a landmark earthquake and a sequence of smaller subsequent earthquakes (pre-shocks) always arise prior to another landmark earthquake within a well-defined seismic zone and its current seismic period. Applying a mechanical model, magnitude constraint conditions, and case study data of 62 worldwide seismic zones, we show that two adjacent landmark earthquakes reliably occur at the volume-expansion point and peak-stress point (rupture) of a locked segment; thus, the former is an identified precursor for the latter. Such a precursor seismicity pattern before the locked-segment rupture has definite physical meanings, and it is universal regardless of the focal depth. Because the evolution of landmark earthquakes follows a deterministic rule described by the model, they are predictable. The results of this study lay a firm physical foundation for reliably predicting the occurrence of future landmark earthquakes in a seismic zone and can greatly improve our understanding of earthquake generation mechanism. (c) 2021 China University of Geosciences (Beijing) Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).
WOS关键词POTENTIAL STRAIN INDICATOR ; BRITTLE FAILURE PREDICTION ; UNITED-STATES ; STICK-SLIP ; ROCK ; MECHANISM ; TEMPERATURE ; ASPERITIES ; BARRIERS ; BEHAVIOR
资助项目National Key Research and Development Program of China[2019YFC1509701] ; Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program (STEP)[2019QZKK0904] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[42107184] ; China Postdoctoral Science Foundation[2018M640181]
WOS研究方向Geology
语种英语
WOS记录号WOS:000788057200005
出版者CHINA UNIV GEOSCIENCES, BEIJING
资助机构National Key Research and Development Program of China ; National Key Research and Development Program of China ; National Key Research and Development Program of China ; National Key Research and Development Program of China ; Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program (STEP) ; Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program (STEP) ; Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program (STEP) ; Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program (STEP) ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; China Postdoctoral Science Foundation ; China Postdoctoral Science Foundation ; China Postdoctoral Science Foundation ; China Postdoctoral Science Foundation ; National Key Research and Development Program of China ; National Key Research and Development Program of China ; National Key Research and Development Program of China ; National Key Research and Development Program of China ; Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program (STEP) ; Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program (STEP) ; Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program (STEP) ; Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program (STEP) ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; China Postdoctoral Science Foundation ; China Postdoctoral Science Foundation ; China Postdoctoral Science Foundation ; China Postdoctoral Science Foundation ; National Key Research and Development Program of China ; National Key Research and Development Program of China ; National Key Research and Development Program of China ; National Key Research and Development Program of China ; Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program (STEP) ; Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program (STEP) ; Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program (STEP) ; Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program (STEP) ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; China Postdoctoral Science Foundation ; China Postdoctoral Science Foundation ; China Postdoctoral Science Foundation ; China Postdoctoral Science Foundation ; National Key Research and Development Program of China ; National Key Research and Development Program of China ; National Key Research and Development Program of China ; National Key Research and Development Program of China ; Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program (STEP) ; Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program (STEP) ; Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program (STEP) ; Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program (STEP) ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; China Postdoctoral Science Foundation ; China Postdoctoral Science Foundation ; China Postdoctoral Science Foundation ; China Postdoctoral Science Foundation
源URL[http://ir.iggcas.ac.cn/handle/132A11/105158]  
专题地质与地球物理研究所_中国科学院页岩气与地质工程重点实验室
通讯作者Qin, Siqing
作者单位1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geol & Geophys, Key Lab Shale Gas & Geoengn, Beijing, Peoples R China
2.Chinese Acad Sci, Innovat Acad Earth Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China
3.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Coll Earth & Planetary Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China
4.Northeastern Univ, Sch Resources & Civil Engn, Shenyang, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714		 Qin, Siqing,Chen, Hongran,Xue, Lei,et al. Universal precursor seismicity pattern before locked-segment rupture and evolutionary rule for landmark earthquakes[J]. GEOSCIENCE FRONTIERS,2022,13(3):12.
APA Qin, Siqing,Chen, Hongran,Xue, Lei,Yang, Baicun,&Zhang, Ke.(2022).Universal precursor seismicity pattern before locked-segment rupture and evolutionary rule for landmark earthquakes.GEOSCIENCE FRONTIERS,13(3),12.
MLA Qin, Siqing,et al."Universal precursor seismicity pattern before locked-segment rupture and evolutionary rule for landmark earthquakes".GEOSCIENCE FRONTIERS 13.3(2022):12.

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来源：地质与地球物理研究所

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