中国科学院机构知识库网格
Chinese Academy of Sciences Institutional Repositories Grid
首页 机构 成果 学者
  
  1. CAS IR Grid
  2. 地理科学与资源研究所
  3. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
Impacts of climate change on agrometeorological indices at winter wheat overwintering stage in northern China during 2021-2050

文献类型：期刊论文

作者Hao, Zhixin1,2; Geng, Xiu1,2; Wang, Fang1,2; Zheng, Jingyun1,2
刊名INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
出版日期2018-12-01
卷号38期号:15页码:5576-5588
关键词climate change northern China planting boundary precipitation before winter sowing date the first day of the overwintering period winter wheat overwintering
ISSN号0899-8418
DOI10.1002/joc.5764
通讯作者Zheng, Jingyun(zhengjy@igsnrr.ac.cn)
英文摘要Climate change has a significant impact on agrometeorological conditions. We analysed the winter wheat overwintering indices for the northern winter wheat production areas of China (NWPA), which include the percentage of extreme low-temperature (daily minimum temperature <=-22 degrees C) years, the first day of the overwintering period (FDO), sowing date (SD) and precipitation before winter (PBW). Then, we compared the differences of the four indices between the forecast period 2021-2050 and the baseline period 1961-1990 under the RCP4.5 scenario, which were based on the 0.5 degrees x 0.5 degrees grid daily meteorological data output provided by the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project. The results showed that the occurrence of extreme cold winters decreases the NWPA, which will result in the northern boundary of winter wheat moving north by 1-2 latitudes and in an increase in the potentially safe overwintering areas by 8.5%. The FDO will be delayed in 2021-2050 by an average of 7.7 days. Climate warming will change the meteorological conditions for winter wheat overwintering in the Huang-Huai winter wheat area, especially near the southern boundary of the winter wheat planting area, and the areas and years with no obvious overwintering periods will experience an increase by 50% and 56%, respectively. The SD will be postponed by 8.6-9.0 days. The PBW will decrease as the accumulated temperature increases, especially in the Huang-Huai winter wheat area. In the future, the possible northern boundary for winter wheat planting may move northward, and the northernmost tip may reach 46 degrees N. South of the Huang-Huai region, winter wheat planting may change from a semi-winter to a spring variety. These findings will provide a reference for generating wheat planting and management strategies in China.
WOS关键词TRITICUM-AESTIVUM L. ; POTENTIAL IMPACT ; TEMPERATURE ; VARIABILITY ; YIELDS ; PRODUCTIVITY ; TOLERANCE ; COLD
资助项目National Key Research and Development Program of China[2016YFA0602704] ; Chinese Academy of Sciences[XDA19040101] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41671201]
WOS研究方向Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
语种英语
WOS记录号WOS:000452432200010
出版者WILEY
资助机构National Key Research and Development Program of China ; Chinese Academy of Sciences ; National Natural Science Foundation of China
源URL[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/51427]  
专题中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
通讯作者Zheng, Jingyun
作者单位1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Land Surface Pattern & Simulat, Beijing, Peoples R China
2.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Coll Resources & Environm, Beijing, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714		 Hao, Zhixin,Geng, Xiu,Wang, Fang,et al. Impacts of climate change on agrometeorological indices at winter wheat overwintering stage in northern China during 2021-2050[J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,2018,38(15):5576-5588.
APA Hao, Zhixin,Geng, Xiu,Wang, Fang,&Zheng, Jingyun.(2018).Impacts of climate change on agrometeorological indices at winter wheat overwintering stage in northern China during 2021-2050.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,38(15),5576-5588.
MLA Hao, Zhixin,et al."Impacts of climate change on agrometeorological indices at winter wheat overwintering stage in northern China during 2021-2050".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY 38.15(2018):5576-5588.

入库方式： OAI收割

来源：地理科学与资源研究所

浏览0
下载0
收藏0
其他版本

除非特别说明，本系统中所有内容都受版权保护，并保留所有权利。