Extreme Precipitation in China in Response to Emission Reductions under the Paris Agreement
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Zhang, Jintao; Wang, Fang
|
| 刊名 | WATER
 |
| 出版日期 | 2019-06-01 |
| 卷号 | 11期号:6页码:15 |
| 关键词 | INDC pledge precipitation extreme events extreme precipitation exposure |
| ISSN号 | 2073-4441 |
| DOI | 10.3390/w11061167 |
| 通讯作者 | Wang, Fang(wangf@igsnrr.ac.cn) |
| 英文摘要 | To avoid more severe impacts from climate change, countries worldwide pledged to implement intended nationally determined contributions (INDCs) for emission reductions (as part of the Paris Agreement). However, it remains unclear what the resulting precipitation change in terms of regional extremes would be in response to the INDC scenarios. Here, we analyzed China's extreme precipitation response of the next few decades to the updated INDC scenarios within the framework of the Paris Agreement. Our results indicate increases in the intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation (compared with the current level) in most regions in China. The maximum consecutive five-day precipitation over China is projected to increase similar to 16%, and the number of heavy precipitation days will increase as much as similar to 20% in some areas. The probability distributions of extreme precipitation events become wider, resulting in the occurrence of more record-breaking heavy precipitation in the future. We further considered the impacts of precipitation-related extremes and found that the projected population exposure to heavy precipitation events will significantly increase in almost all Chinese regions. For example, for heavy precipitation events that exceed the 20 year baseline return value, the population exposure over China increases from 5.7% (5.1-6.0%) to 15.9% (14.2-16.4%) in the INDC-pledge scenario compared with the present-day level. Limiting the warming to lower levels (e.g., 1.5 degrees C or 2.0 degrees C) would reduce the population exposure to heavy precipitation, thereby avoiding impacts associated with more intense precipitation events. These results contribute to an improved understanding of the future risk of climate extremes, which is paramount for the design of mitigation and adaptation policies in China. |
| WOS关键词 | CLIMATE-CHANGE ; DEGREES-C ; INDEXES ; CMIP5 ; 2-DEGREES-C ; SUMMER ; IMPACT |
| 资助项目 | Strategic Leading Science and Technology Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences[XDA20020202] ; National Key Research and Development Program of China[2016YFA0602704] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41771050] |
| WOS研究方向 | Water Resources |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000475346300055 |
| 出版者 | MDPI |
| 资助机构 | Strategic Leading Science and Technology Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences ; National Key Research and Development Program of China ; National Natural Science Foundation of China |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/58070]  |
| 专题 | 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 |
| 通讯作者 | Wang, Fang |
| 作者单位 | Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Land Surface Pattern & Simulat, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Zhang, Jintao,Wang, Fang. Extreme Precipitation in China in Response to Emission Reductions under the Paris Agreement[J]. WATER,2019,11(6):15. |
| APA | Zhang, Jintao,&Wang, Fang.(2019).Extreme Precipitation in China in Response to Emission Reductions under the Paris Agreement.WATER,11(6),15. |
| MLA | Zhang, Jintao,et al."Extreme Precipitation in China in Response to Emission Reductions under the Paris Agreement".WATER 11.6(2019):15. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
浏览0
下载0
收藏0
其他版本
除非特别说明，本系统中所有内容都受版权保护，并保留所有权利。