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Multimodel assessments of human and climate impacts on mean annual streamflow in China

文献类型：期刊论文

作者Liu, Xingcai11,12; Liu, Wenfeng12,13; Yang, Hong1,12; Tang, Qiuhong2,11; Floerke, Martina3; Masaki, Yoshimitsu4; Schmied, Hannes Mueller5,6; Ostberg, Sebastian7; Pokhrel, Yadu9; Satoh, Yusuke8,10
刊名HYDROLOGY AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES
出版日期2019-03-06
卷号23期号:3页码:1245-1261
ISSN号1027-5606
DOI10.5194/hess-23-1245-2019
通讯作者Tang, Qiuhong(tangqh@igsnrr.ac.cn)
英文摘要Human activities, as well as climate variability, have had increasing impacts on natural hydrological systems, particularly streamflow. However, quantitative assessments of these impacts are lacking on large scales. In this study, we use the simulations from six global hydrological models driven by three meteorological forcings to investigate direct human impact (DHI) and climate impact on streamflow in China. Results show that, in the sub-periods of 1971-1990 and 1991-2010, one-fifth to one-third of mean annual streamflow (MAF) was reduced due to DHI in northern basins, and much smaller (< 4 %) MAF was reduced in southern basins. From 1971-1990 to 1991-2010, total MAF changes range from 13% to 10% across basins wherein the relative contributions of DHI change and climate variability show distinct spatial patterns. DHI change caused decreases in MAF in 70% of river segments, but climate variability dominated the total MAF changes in 88% of river segments of China. In most northern basins, climate variability results in changes of -9% to 18% in MAF, while DHI change results in decreases of 2% to 8% in MAF. In contrast with the climate variability that may increase or decrease streamflow, DHI change almost always contributes to decreases in MAF over time, with water withdrawals supposedly being the major impact on streamflow. This quantitative assessment can be a reference for attribution of streamflow changes at large scales, despite remaining uncertainty. We highlight the significant DHI in northern basins and the necessity to modulate DHI through improved water management towards a better adaptation to future climate change.
WOS关键词YELLOW-RIVER BASIN ; WATER-RESOURCES ; QUANTITATIVE ASSESSMENT ; HYDROLOGICAL CYCLES ; INTEGRATED MODEL ; RUNOFF CHANGES ; VARIABILITY ; AGRICULTURE ; IRRIGATION ; DECLINE
资助项目National Natural Science Foundation of China[41730645] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41425002] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41790424] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41877164] ; Key Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences[KGFZD-135-17-009-3] ; Key Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences[ZDRW-ZS-2017-4] ; International Partnership Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences[131A11KYSB20170113] ; Early Postdoctoral Mobility Fellowship - Swiss National Science Foundation[P2EZP2_ 175096] ; Asian Studies Center at Michigan State University
WOS研究方向Geology ; Water Resources
语种英语
WOS记录号WOS:000460445000001
出版者COPERNICUS GESELLSCHAFT MBH
资助机构National Natural Science Foundation of China ; Key Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences ; International Partnership Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences ; Early Postdoctoral Mobility Fellowship - Swiss National Science Foundation ; Asian Studies Center at Michigan State University
源URL[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/49217]  
专题中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
通讯作者Tang, Qiuhong
作者单位1.Univ Basel, MGU, Dept Environm Sci, Peterspl 1, CH-4003 Basel, Switzerland
2.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Coll Resources & Environm, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China
3.Univ Kassel, Ctr Environm Syst Res, Wilhelmshoher Allee 47, D-34109 Kassel, Germany
4.Hirosaki Univ, Grad Sch Sci & Technol, Hirosaki, Aomori, Japan
5.Goethe Univ Frankfurt, Inst Phys Geog, Altenhoferallee 1, D-60438 Frankfurt, Germany
6.Senckenberg Biodivers & Climate Res Ctr SBiK F, Senckenberganlage 25, D-60325 Frankfurt, Germany
7.Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res PIK, Earth Syst Anal, Telegraphenberg A31, D-14473 Potsdam, Germany
8.Int Inst Appl Syst Anal, Laxenburg, Austria
9.Michigan State Univ, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, E Lansing, MI 48824 USA
10.Natl Inst Environm Studies, 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714		 Liu, Xingcai,Liu, Wenfeng,Yang, Hong,et al. Multimodel assessments of human and climate impacts on mean annual streamflow in China[J]. HYDROLOGY AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES,2019,23(3):1245-1261.
APA Liu, Xingcai.,Liu, Wenfeng.,Yang, Hong.,Tang, Qiuhong.,Floerke, Martina.,...&Wada, Yoshihide.(2019).Multimodel assessments of human and climate impacts on mean annual streamflow in China.HYDROLOGY AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES,23(3),1245-1261.
MLA Liu, Xingcai,et al."Multimodel assessments of human and climate impacts on mean annual streamflow in China".HYDROLOGY AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES 23.3(2019):1245-1261.

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来源：地理科学与资源研究所

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