Spatial distribution and changes of permafrost on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau revealed by statistical models during the period of 1980 to 2010
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Wang, Tianye1,2,3; Wu, Tonghua1; Wang, Ping2; Li, Ren1; Xie, Changwei1; Zou, Defu1 |
| 刊名 | SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT
 |
| 出版日期 | 2019-02-10 |
| 卷号 | 650页码:661-670 |
| 关键词 | Permafrost distribution Permafrost changes Qinghai-Tibet Plateau Logistic regression model Multi-criteria analysis |
| ISSN号 | 0048-9697 |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.08.398 |
| 通讯作者 | Wu, Tonghua(thuawu@lzb.ac.cn) |
| 英文摘要 | The Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP), where is underlain by the highest and most extensive mid-altitude permafrost, is undergoing more dramatic climatic warming than its surrounding regions. Mapping the distribution of permafrost is of great importance to assess the impacts of permafrost changes on the regional climate system. In this study, we applied logistic regression model (LRM) andmulti-criteria analysis (MCA) methods to map the decadal permafrost distribution on the QTP and to assess permafrost dynamics from the 1980s to 2000s. The occurrence of permafrost and its impacting factors (i.e., climatic and topographic elements) were constructed from in-situ field investigation-derived permafrost distribution patterns in 4 selected study regions. The validation results indicate that both LRM and MCA could efficiently map the permafrost distribution on the QTP. The areas of permafrost simulated by LRM and MCA are 1.23 x 10(6) km(2) and 1.20 x 10(6) km(2), respectively, between 2008 and 2012. The LRM and MCA modeling results revealed that permafrost area has significantly decreased at a rate of 0.066 x 10(6) km(2) decade(-1) over the past 30 years, and the decrease of permafrost area is accelerating. The sensitivity test results indicated that LRM did well in identifying the spatial distribution of permafrost and seasonally frozen ground, and MCA did well in reflecting permafrost dynamics. More parameters such as vegetation, soil property, and soil moisture are suggested to be integrated into the models to enhance the performance of both models. (C) 2018 Published by Elsevier B.V. |
| WOS关键词 | INTERNATIONAL POLAR YEAR ; PAST 50 YEARS ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; ACTIVE-LAYER ; LOGISTIC-REGRESSION ; THERMAL STATE ; VEGETATION DISTRIBUTION ; MULTICRITERIA APPROACH ; ALPINE PERMAFROST ; NORTHERN MONGOLIA |
| 资助项目 | Chinese Academy of Sciences[XDA20100103] ; Chinese Academy of Sciences[ZDRW-ZS-2017-4] ; State Key Laboratory of Cryosphere Sciences[SKLCS-ZZ-2018] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41721091] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41690142] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41771076] |
| WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000447092700068 |
| 出版者 | ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV |
| 资助机构 | Chinese Academy of Sciences ; State Key Laboratory of Cryosphere Sciences ; National Natural Science Foundation of China |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/52640]  |
| 专题 | 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 |
| 通讯作者 | Wu, Tonghua |
| 作者单位 | 1.Chinese Acad Sci, Cryosphere Res Stn Qinghai Tibet Plateau, State Key Lab Cryospher Sci, Lanzhou 730000, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Key Lab Water Cycle & Related Land Surface Proc, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China 3.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Wang, Tianye,Wu, Tonghua,Wang, Ping,et al. Spatial distribution and changes of permafrost on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau revealed by statistical models during the period of 1980 to 2010[J]. SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT,2019,650:661-670. |
| APA | Wang, Tianye,Wu, Tonghua,Wang, Ping,Li, Ren,Xie, Changwei,&Zou, Defu.(2019).Spatial distribution and changes of permafrost on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau revealed by statistical models during the period of 1980 to 2010.SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT,650,661-670. |
| MLA | Wang, Tianye,et al."Spatial distribution and changes of permafrost on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau revealed by statistical models during the period of 1980 to 2010".SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 650(2019):661-670. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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