Scenario analysis of land use change in Kabul River Basin - A river basin with rapid socio-economic changes in Afghanistan
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Najmuddin, Omaid1,2,3; Deng, Xiangzheng1,2,3; Jia Siqi1,3 |
| 刊名 | PHYSICS AND CHEMISTRY OF THE EARTH
 |
| 出版日期 | 2017-10-01 |
| 卷号 | 101页码:121-136 |
| ISSN号 | 1474-7065 |
| 关键词 | Land use change Simulation Scenario analysis Dynamic of Land System Kabul River Basin |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.pce.2017.06.002 |
| 通讯作者 | Deng, Xiangzheng(dengxz@igsnrr.ac.cn) |
| 英文摘要 | Land use management has a great importance in socio-economic development of countries and regions. Recently, Afghanistan has, at one hand, experienced significant socio-economic changes through political and economic transformation and, on the other hand it is considered amongst vulnerable countries to climate and other natural changes. For this, understanding the interactions between socio-economic and natural changes with land use change under different development scenarios is crucial for sustainable land use management. Present research took Kabul River Basin (KRB) as a case study area and used Dynamic of Land System (DLS) model to simulate land use/cover for the years of 2020 and 2030. For this purpose, various socio-economic and bio-physical datasets were prepared and then integrated into the model under three different scenarios i.e. baseline, economic development, and environmental protection. The results indicated a significant land use change under all three scenarios. Cultivated land, grassland and built-up area will significantly increase under all three scenarios; while forest area, water area and unused land will significantly decrease under the economic development and baseline scenarios. While in the environmental protections scenario, the forest area will considerably increase, however, water area still showed a decreasing trend but it will be lesser as compared to the other two scenarios. By considering the above degradations, particularly under baseline and economic scenarios, it is suggested that the government needs to develop overall land use planning in KRB to achieve a rational exploitation of land resources and we hoped that the results of this study will help to target management decisions on rational land uses and effective environment protections of KRB. (C) 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. |
| WOS关键词 | AIR-POLLUTION ; COVER CHANGE ; CLIMATE ; CHINA ; IMPACT ; URBANIZATION ; VEGETATION ; URBAN ; DEFORESTATION ; MIGRATION |
| 资助项目 | CAS-TWAS Fellowship Program |
| WOS研究方向 | Geology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences ; Water Resources |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 出版者 | PERGAMON-ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000416704100014 |
| 资助机构 | CAS-TWAS Fellowship Program |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/60942]  |
| 专题 | 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 |
| 通讯作者 | Deng, Xiangzheng |
| 作者单位 | 1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China 2.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China 3.Chinese Acad Sci, Ctr Chinese Agr Policy, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Najmuddin, Omaid,Deng, Xiangzheng,Jia Siqi. Scenario analysis of land use change in Kabul River Basin - A river basin with rapid socio-economic changes in Afghanistan[J]. PHYSICS AND CHEMISTRY OF THE EARTH,2017,101:121-136. |
| APA | Najmuddin, Omaid,Deng, Xiangzheng,&Jia Siqi.(2017).Scenario analysis of land use change in Kabul River Basin - A river basin with rapid socio-economic changes in Afghanistan.PHYSICS AND CHEMISTRY OF THE EARTH,101,121-136. |
| MLA | Najmuddin, Omaid,et al."Scenario analysis of land use change in Kabul River Basin - A river basin with rapid socio-economic changes in Afghanistan".PHYSICS AND CHEMISTRY OF THE EARTH 101(2017):121-136. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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