Spatiotemporal characteristics of meteorological drought variability and trends (1981-2020) over South Asia and the associated large-scale circulation patterns
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Ullah, Irfan1,2; Ma, Xieyao3,4; Yin, Jun3,4; Omer, Abubaker3; Habtemicheal, Birhanu Asmerom5,6; Saleem, Farhan7,8; Iyakaremye, Vedaste9,12; Syed, Sidra10; Arshad, Muhammad11,12; Liu, Mengyang4,12 |
| 刊名 | CLIMATE DYNAMICS
 |
| 出版日期 | 2022-08-11 |
| 页码 | 24 |
| 关键词 | Drought Bayesian model Climate change Large-scale drivers IOD South Asia |
| ISSN号 | 0930-7575 |
| DOI | 10.1007/s00382-022-06443-6 |
| 通讯作者 | Ma, Xieyao(xyma@nuist.edu.cn) |
| 英文摘要 | The present study uses observation-based gridded air temperature and precipitation datasets to investigate the spatiotemporal changes in meteorological drought from 1981 to 2020 in South Asia (SA). The drought characteristics i.e., duration, area, frequency, intensity, and severity are calculated using Run theory and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) on annual and seasonal timescales. SA is divided into four homogeneous subregions using the k-means clustering algorithm, while the trends were estimated using Sen's Slope estimator and modified Mann-Kendall (MMK) test. A state-of-the-art Bayesian Dynamic Linear (BDL) model was employed to assess the sub-regional drought variability and their possible links with large-scale atmospheric drivers such as the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). It is found that the SA winter season experienced a significant drying long-term trend, especially southwestern and northeastern parts of SA. Drought durations show dipolar patterns with longer drought duration in the southwestern compared to the northern parts of SA. Notably, arid and semi-arid regions have shown significant drying trends in terms of their area, frequency, and severity, implying that meteorological droughts are relatively more severe in those regions. Similarly, the relationship varies over time between drought variability and climate drivers. In particular, the IOD has an impact on drought episodes over southwest SA relative to the northern parts and is mostly affected by the Sea surface temperature (SST) variability. The study results contribute to a better understanding of the meteorological drought characteristics over SA, which is important for disaster risk managers and policymakers to mitigate drought impacts. |
| WOS关键词 | SUMMER MONSOON ; CLIMATE VARIABILITY ; RAINFALL TRENDS ; PAKISTAN ; PRECIPITATION ; REGION ; IMPACTS ; PROJECTIONS ; LINKAGES ; DYNAMICS |
| 资助项目 | National Natural Science Foundation of China[41877158] |
| WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000839388000007 |
| 出版者 | SPRINGER |
| 资助机构 | National Natural Science Foundation of China |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/166548]  |
| 专题 | 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 |
| 通讯作者 | Ma, Xieyao |
| 作者单位 | 1.Hohai Univ, Coll Hydrol & Water Resources, Nanjing 210098, Peoples R China 2.Hohai Univ, CMA HHU Joint Lab Hydrometeorol Studies, Nanjing 210098, Peoples R China 3.Nanjing Univ Informat Sci & Technol, Sch Hydrol & Water Resources, Nanjing 210044, Peoples R China 4.Nanjing Univ Informat Sci & Technol, Key Lab Hydrometeorol Disaster Mech & Warning, Chinese Acad Sci & Minist Water Resources, Nanjing 210044, Peoples R China 5.Nanjing Univ Informat Sci & Technol, Collaborat Innovat Ctr Forecast & Evaluat Meteoro, Key Lab Aerosol Cloud Precipitat, Sch Atmospher Phys,China Meteorol Adm, Nanjing 210044, Peoples R China 6.Wollo Univ, Dept Phys, Dessie 1145, Ethiopia 7.Chinese Acad Sci, Int Ctr Climate & Environm Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, Beijing 100029, Peoples R China 8.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Coll Earth & Planetary Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China 9.Rwanda Meteorol Agcy, Kigali 898, Rwanda 10.Univ Peshawar, Inst Peace & Conflicts Studies, Peshawar 25000, Pakistan |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Ullah, Irfan,Ma, Xieyao,Yin, Jun,et al. Spatiotemporal characteristics of meteorological drought variability and trends (1981-2020) over South Asia and the associated large-scale circulation patterns[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2022:24. |
| APA | Ullah, Irfan.,Ma, Xieyao.,Yin, Jun.,Omer, Abubaker.,Habtemicheal, Birhanu Asmerom.,...&Liu, Mengyang.(2022).Spatiotemporal characteristics of meteorological drought variability and trends (1981-2020) over South Asia and the associated large-scale circulation patterns.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,24. |
| MLA | Ullah, Irfan,et al."Spatiotemporal characteristics of meteorological drought variability and trends (1981-2020) over South Asia and the associated large-scale circulation patterns".CLIMATE DYNAMICS (2022):24. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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