Joint probability of drought encounter among three major grain production zones of China under nonstationary climate
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Zhao, Ruxin3,4; Wang, Huixiao3; Hu, Shi2; Zhan, Chesheng1,5; Guo, Jiahao3 |
| 刊名 | JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY
 |
| 出版日期 | 2021-12-01 |
| 卷号 | 603页码:14 |
| 关键词 | Drought encounter Nonstationary Copula functions Joint probability Grain production zones |
| ISSN号 | 0022-1694 |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.126995 |
| 通讯作者 | Wang, Huixiao(huixiaowang@bnu.edu.cn) |
| 英文摘要 | Better understanding for the likelihood of drought occur in the main grain production zones of China is key to minimize the risk for food security, especially in a changing climate. In an attempt to encompass the climate variability in the assessment of drought, a nonstationary standardized precipitation index (NSPI) was established for three major grain production zones (Songnen Plain (SN), North China Plain (NC), and Sichuan Basin (SC), hereinafter referred to GPZs) by means of using the climate indices as covariates. Then three commonly used Archimedean copulas (i.e., Clayton, Frank, and Gumbel-Hougaard) were adopted to determine the joint drought probability model. Using the joint probability distribution, the risk of drought in different degree occurring among the three GPZs, conditional joint probability, and conditional return period of different drought combinations of GPZs were analyzed. The results show that NSPI reflected the drought conditions well in three GPZs, and the copula-based joint probability distributions of different drought situations among the three GPZs were reasonable. For the situation of droughts encounter in two GPZs, synchronous droughts in different degree are more prone to encounter in NC & SC, and the conditional joint drought probability (return period) is also higher (lower) in the combination of SC and NC. For the situation of droughts encounter in three GPZs, the probability of synchronous droughts in the three GPZs is decreasing with increase of drought degree. If a specifically drought (NSPI <= -1) occurred in two GPZs, the conditional joint drought probability is highest in NC, then followed by SC, and SN. The findings of this study could provide important implications of decision-making for food security. |
| WOS关键词 | STANDARDIZED PRECIPITATION INDEX ; CROP YIELD ; IMPACTS ; AGRICULTURE ; RAINFALL ; TEMPERATURE ; EVOLUTION ; MODELS ; TREND ; SCALE |
| 资助项目 | National Natural Science Foundation of China[51779009] ; National Key Research and Development Program of China[2017YFC0404603] |
| WOS研究方向 | Engineering ; Geology ; Water Resources |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000706318300068 |
| 出版者 | ELSEVIER |
| 资助机构 | National Natural Science Foundation of China ; National Key Research and Development Program of China |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/167120]  |
| 专题 | 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 |
| 通讯作者 | Wang, Huixiao |
| 作者单位 | 1.Chinese Acad Sci, Yucheng Comprehens Expt Stn, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Water Cycle & Related Land Surface Proc, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China 3.Beijing Normal Univ, Coll Water Sci, Beijing Key Lab Urban Hydrol Cycle & Sponge City, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China 4.Minist Emergency Management China, Natl Inst Nat Hazards, Beijing 100085, Peoples R China 5.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Ecosyst Network Observat & Modeling, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Zhao, Ruxin,Wang, Huixiao,Hu, Shi,et al. Joint probability of drought encounter among three major grain production zones of China under nonstationary climate[J]. JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY,2021,603:14. |
| APA | Zhao, Ruxin,Wang, Huixiao,Hu, Shi,Zhan, Chesheng,&Guo, Jiahao.(2021).Joint probability of drought encounter among three major grain production zones of China under nonstationary climate.JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY,603,14. |
| MLA | Zhao, Ruxin,et al."Joint probability of drought encounter among three major grain production zones of China under nonstationary climate".JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY 603(2021):14. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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