A five-parameter Gamma-Gaussian model to calibrate monthly and seasonal GCM precipitation forecasts
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Huang, Zeqing2; Zhao, Tongtiegang2; Zhang, Yongyong3; Cai, Huayang1; Hou, Aizhong4; Chen, Xiaohong2 |
| 刊名 | JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY
 |
| 出版日期 | 2021-12-01 |
| 卷号 | 603页码:15 |
| 关键词 | Precipitation Forecast calibration Quantile mapping Gamma distribution Gaussian distribution |
| ISSN号 | 0022-1694 |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.126893 |
| 通讯作者 | Zhao, Tongtiegang(zhaottg@mail.sysu.edu.cn) |
| 英文摘要 | Calibration is necessary for improving raw forecasts generated by global climate models (GCMs) to fully utilize potential benefits of the forecasts in practical applications. Based on quantile mapping (QM), this paper proposes a five-parameter Gamma-Gaussian model to calibrate monthly and seasonal GCM precipitation forecasts. While QM directly maps forecasts to observations without accounting for the dependency relationship, the GammaGaussian model employs the Gamma distribution to normalize precipitation forecasts and observations using normal quantile transform (NQT) and then formulates a bivariate Gaussian distribution to characterize the dependency relationship. A case study is devised to calibrate global precipitation forecasts generated by the Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) using both QM and Gamma-Gaussian models. The results show that both QM and Gamma-Gaussian models can effectively correct biases. While QM can improve forecast reliability to some degree by reducing biases, reliability is not always satisfactory. The Gamma-Gaussian model outperforms QM because it can ensure forecast reliability and coherence. To facilitate the selection of marginal distributions for the purpose of calibrating GCM precipitation forecasts, six alternative distributions, i.e., Gamma, lognormal, generalized extreme value, generalized logistic, Pearson type III and Kappa distributions, are employed to characterize the marginal distribution of forecasts (observations) in NQT. It is observed that the Gamma distribution is overall the most suitable and that the alternative distributions tend to fit sample-specific noises and get penalized under cross validation. Overall, the Gamma-Gaussian model can serve as an effective tool to calibrate raw GCM forecasts for hydrological modeling and water resources management. |
| WOS关键词 | REGIONAL CLIMATE MODEL ; BIAS-CORRECTION ; ENSEMBLE PREDICTION ; WATER MANAGEMENT ; RIVER-BASIN ; STREAMFLOW ; SYSTEM ; TEMPERATURE ; COPULA ; SKILL |
| 资助项目 | Natural Science Foundation of China[51979295] ; Natural Science Foundation of China[51861125203] ; Natural Science Foundation of China[U1911204] ; Guangdong Provincial Department of Science and Technology[2019ZT08G090] ; Water Science and Technology Innovation Project of Guangdong[2020-27] |
| WOS研究方向 | Engineering ; Geology ; Water Resources |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000706313000075 |
| 出版者 | ELSEVIER |
| 资助机构 | Natural Science Foundation of China ; Guangdong Provincial Department of Science and Technology ; Water Science and Technology Innovation Project of Guangdong |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/167354]  |
| 专题 | 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 |
| 通讯作者 | Zhao, Tongtiegang |
| 作者单位 | 1.Sun Yat Sen Univ, Sch Marine Engn & Technol, Zhuhai, Peoples R China 2.Sun Yat Sen Univ, Ctr Water Resources & Environm, Sch Civil Engn, Southern Marine Sci & Engn Guangdong Lab Zhuhai, Guangzhou, Peoples R China 3.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Water Cycle & Related Land Surface Proc, Beijing, Peoples R China 4.Minist Water Resources Peoples Republ China, Hydrol Forecast Ctr, Beijing, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Huang, Zeqing,Zhao, Tongtiegang,Zhang, Yongyong,et al. A five-parameter Gamma-Gaussian model to calibrate monthly and seasonal GCM precipitation forecasts[J]. JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY,2021,603:15. |
| APA | Huang, Zeqing,Zhao, Tongtiegang,Zhang, Yongyong,Cai, Huayang,Hou, Aizhong,&Chen, Xiaohong.(2021).A five-parameter Gamma-Gaussian model to calibrate monthly and seasonal GCM precipitation forecasts.JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY,603,15. |
| MLA | Huang, Zeqing,et al."A five-parameter Gamma-Gaussian model to calibrate monthly and seasonal GCM precipitation forecasts".JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY 603(2021):15. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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