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Dynamic Assessment of the Flood Risk at Basin Scale under Simulation of Land-Use Scenarios and Spatialization Technology of Factor

文献类型：期刊论文

作者Liu, Jun1; Wang, Jiyan1; Xiong, Junnan1,2; Cheng, Weiming2; Cui, Xingjie1; He, Wen1; He, Yufeng1; Duan, Yu1; Yang, Gang1; Wang, Nan3
刊名WATER
出版日期2021-11-01
卷号13期号:22页码:24
关键词dynamic flood risk assessment future land-use simulation scenario-based planning spatialization technology Markov chains ANN FLUS model TOPSIS
DOI10.3390/w13223239
通讯作者Xiong, Junnan(xiongjn@swpu.edu.cn)
英文摘要Climate change, population increase, and urban expansion have increased the risk of flooding. Therefore, accurately identifying future changing patterns in the flood risk is essential. For this purpose, this study elaborated a new framework for a basin scale that employs a future land-use simulation model, a factor spatialization technique, and a novel hybrid model for scenario-based flood risk assessment in 2030 and 2050. Three land-use scenarios (i.e., natural growth scenario, cropland protection scenario, and ecological protection scenario) were set and applied in Jinjiang Basin to explore the changes in future flood risk under these scenarios. The results indicate the different degrees of increase in flood risk that will occur in the three scenarios. Under the natural growth (NG) scenario, the city will expand rapidly with the growth of population and economy, and the total area with high and very high flood risk will increase by 371.30 km(2) by 2050, as compared to 2020. However, under the ecological protection (EP) scenario, woodlands will be protected, and the growth in population, economy, and built-up lands will slow down with slightly increased risk of flooding. In this scenario, the total area with high and very high flood risk will increase by 113.75 km(2) by 2050. Under the cropland protection (CP) scenario, the loss of croplands will have been effectively stopped, and the flood risk will not show a significant increase under this scenario, with an increase by only 90.96 km(2) by 2050, similar to the EP scenario. Spatially, these increased flood risks mainly locate at the periphery of existing built-up lands, and the high-flood-risk zones are mainly distributed in the southeast of the Jinjiang Basin. The information about increasing flood risk determined by the framework provides insight into the spatio-temporal characteristics of future flood-prone areas, which facilitates reasonable flood mitigation measures to be developed at the most critical locations in the region.
WOS关键词WEIGHTS-OF-EVIDENCE ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; SUSCEPTIBILITY ASSESSMENT ; STATISTICAL-MODELS ; VULNERABILITY ; URBANIZATION ; PROJECTIONS ; IMPACTS ; CHINA ; CLASSIFICATION
资助项目Key R & D project of Sichuan Science and Technology Department[21QYCX0016] ; National Key R&D Program of China[2020YFD1100701] ; Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences[XDA20030302] ; Science and Technology Project of Xizang Autonomous Region[XZ201901-GA-07] ; National Flash Flood Investigation and Evaluation Project[SHZH-IWHR-57] ; Science and Technology Bureau of Altay Region in Yili Kazak Autonomous Prefecture
WOS研究方向Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Water Resources
语种英语
出版者MDPI
WOS记录号WOS:000728584400001
资助机构Key R & D project of Sichuan Science and Technology Department ; National Key R&D Program of China ; Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences ; Science and Technology Project of Xizang Autonomous Region ; National Flash Flood Investigation and Evaluation Project ; Science and Technology Bureau of Altay Region in Yili Kazak Autonomous Prefecture
源URL[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/168607]  
专题中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
通讯作者Xiong, Junnan
作者单位1.Southwest Petr Univ, Sch Civil Engn & Geomat, Chengdu 610500, Peoples R China
2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, State Key Lab Resources & Environm Informat Syst, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China
3.Northeast Normal Univ, Sch Geog Sci, Changchun 130024, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714		 Liu, Jun,Wang, Jiyan,Xiong, Junnan,et al. Dynamic Assessment of the Flood Risk at Basin Scale under Simulation of Land-Use Scenarios and Spatialization Technology of Factor[J]. WATER,2021,13(22):24.
APA Liu, Jun.,Wang, Jiyan.,Xiong, Junnan.,Cheng, Weiming.,Cui, Xingjie.,...&Wang, Nan.(2021).Dynamic Assessment of the Flood Risk at Basin Scale under Simulation of Land-Use Scenarios and Spatialization Technology of Factor.WATER,13(22),24.
MLA Liu, Jun,et al."Dynamic Assessment of the Flood Risk at Basin Scale under Simulation of Land-Use Scenarios and Spatialization Technology of Factor".WATER 13.22(2021):24.

入库方式： OAI收割

来源：地理科学与资源研究所

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