Postprocessing of hydrometeorological ensemble forecasts based on multisource precipitation in Ganjiang River basin, China
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Liu, Xin3; Zhang, Liping3,4; She, Dunxian3,4; Chen, Jie3; Xia, Jun3,5; Chen, Xinchi1; Zhao, Tongtiegang2 |
| 刊名 | JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY
 |
| 出版日期 | 2022-02-01 |
| 卷号 | 605页码:19 |
| 关键词 | Multisource precipitation ensemble forecast Hydrometeorological ensemble forecast Ensemble preprocessor Bayesian model averaging |
| ISSN号 | 0022-1694 |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.127323 |
| 通讯作者 | Zhang, Liping(zhanglp@whu.edu.cn) |
| 英文摘要 | Flood forecasting is a challenging task with major concerns that include forecast uncertainty and lead time. This paper aims to comprehensively address the data correction issue for hydrological models by developing an integrated postprocessing framework for hydrometeorological ensemble forecasts based on three types of ensemble precipitation forecasts (ECMWF, GEFS, and CFSv2). This framework mainly comprises the Ensemble Preprocessor (EPP) and the Bayesian model averaging (BMA) scheme: (1) the EPP eliminates various deviations from the ensemble precipitation forecasts, with the canonical event model extracting useful predictive information and extending the lead time by linking the forecasts seamlessly, and (2) the BMA scheme develops more skillful and reliable probabilistic hydrological forecasts from ensemble streamflow forecasts generated by three hydrological models (XAJ, VIC and DTVGM) driven by the postprocessed ensemble precipitation forecasts. The Ganjiang River Basin was selected as a case study to examine the capacity and efficiency of our developed framework. We found that the performance of the integrated postprocessing of hydrometeorological ensemble forecasts benefitted from a reasonable design of canonical events, especially when the observed precipitation was factored into the canonical events. Streamflow forecasts with increased lead times and accuracy were obtained by employing postprocessed precipitation forecasts instead of raw forecasts as the input for the hydrological models. We also found that the BMA scheme further improved the forecast effect by generating more skillful and reliable forecasts than a single hydrological model, which was verified by a series of statistical indices and uncertainty analysis. Our results underscore the importance of considering both input and output for hydrological models in hydrological forecasting. |
| WOS关键词 | PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ; MODEL OUTPUT ; UNCERTAINTY ; CLIMATE ; CALIBRATION ; PREDICTION ; EQUIFINALITY ; SIMULATIONS ; PARAMETERS ; DROUGHTS |
| 资助项目 | National Key Research and Development Program of China[2017YFA0603704] ; Major Projects of National Natural Science Foundation of China[41877159] ; Major Projects of National Natural Science Foundation of China[41890824] |
| WOS研究方向 | Engineering ; Geology ; Water Resources |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000752482300002 |
| 出版者 | ELSEVIER |
| 资助机构 | National Key Research and Development Program of China ; Major Projects of National Natural Science Foundation of China |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/170340]  |
| 专题 | 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 |
| 通讯作者 | Zhang, Liping |
| 作者单位 | 1.Guangdong Res Inst Water Resources & Hydropower, Guangzhou 510635, Peoples R China 2.Sun Yat Sen Univ, Ctr Water Resources & Environm, Sch Civil Engn, Guangzhou 510275, Peoples R China 3.Wuhan Univ, State Key Lab Water Resources & Hydropower Engn S, Wuhan 430072, Peoples R China 4.Wuhan Univ, Hubei Prov Key Lab Water Syst Sci Sponge City Con, Wuhan 430072, Peoples R China 5.Chinese Acad Sci, Key Lab Water Cycle & Related Land Surface Proc, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Liu, Xin,Zhang, Liping,She, Dunxian,et al. Postprocessing of hydrometeorological ensemble forecasts based on multisource precipitation in Ganjiang River basin, China[J]. JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY,2022,605:19. |
| APA | Liu, Xin.,Zhang, Liping.,She, Dunxian.,Chen, Jie.,Xia, Jun.,...&Zhao, Tongtiegang.(2022).Postprocessing of hydrometeorological ensemble forecasts based on multisource precipitation in Ganjiang River basin, China.JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY,605,19. |
| MLA | Liu, Xin,et al."Postprocessing of hydrometeorological ensemble forecasts based on multisource precipitation in Ganjiang River basin, China".JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY 605(2022):19. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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