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An Agent-Based Approach to Integrate Human Dynamics Into Disaster Risk Management

文献类型：期刊论文

作者Wu, Shengnan1; Lei, Yu2,3; Yang, Saini4,5; Cui, Peng3,6; Jin, Wen7
刊名FRONTIERS IN EARTH SCIENCE
出版日期2022-02-04
卷号9页码:10
关键词disaster risk management early warning system agent-based modeling human dynamics debris flows
DOI10.3389/feart.2021.818913
通讯作者Lei, Yu(leiyu@imde.ac.cn)
英文摘要Disaster risk management (DRM) is the application of disaster risk reduction policies and strategies to reduce existing disaster risk and manage residual risk. However, due to dynamic human factors, it is challenging to depict and assess the effectiveness of DRM measures, and their implementation usually lacks a sufficient evidence-based evaluation process. Therefore, this study developed an agent-based model to integrate dynamic human behaviors into the DRM measures and evaluated their effectiveness in casualty reduction. The model was calibrated to simulate the debris flow event at Longchi town, China in 13 August 2010. The early warning system (EWS) and related DRM measures were taken as examples. The effectiveness of different DRM measures was quantitated by comparing the number of potential casualties. The main findings were: 1) EWS was very effective for community-based DRM as it could significantly decrease the average casualties by 30%. 2) Credibility of EWS was critical to its effectiveness. Less credible EWS might reduce its effectiveness by 9%. 3) EWS could be supplemented by other measures to further reduce casualties by 6%. 4) The downside effects of other DRM measures to EWS might exist and reduce its effectiveness by up to 5%. This study put forward an evidence-based approach to help policymakers select more cost-effective DRM measure, especially in the less developed countries where the available resources for DRM are limited.
WOS关键词LAND-USE MODELS ; FLOOD RISK ; STRATEGIES ; INSIGHTS ; BEHAVIOR ; AREA
资助项目Key Research Program of Frontier Sciences, CAS[QYZDY-SSW-DQC006] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41807509] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41790433] ; Chinese Academy of Sciences President's International Fellowship Initiative[2020FYC0004] ; Light of West China Program[Y9R2140]
WOS研究方向Geology
语种英语
WOS记录号WOS:000760646500001
出版者FRONTIERS MEDIA SA
资助机构Key Research Program of Frontier Sciences, CAS ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; Chinese Academy of Sciences President's International Fellowship Initiative ; Light of West China Program
源URL[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/171109]  
专题中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
通讯作者Lei, Yu
作者单位1.Chongqing Sch Publ Serv, Ctr Emergency Management, Chongqing, Peoples R China
2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Mt Hazards & Environm, Key Lab Mt Hazards & Earth Surface Proc, Chengdu, Peoples R China
3.CAS HEC, China Pakistan Joint Res Ctr Earth Sci, Islamabad, Pakistan
4.Beijing Normal Univ, Key Lab Environm Change & Nat Disaster, Minist Educ, Beijing, Peoples R China
5.Beijing Normal Univ, Sch Natl Safety & Emergency Management, Beijing, Peoples R China
6.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Land Surface Syst & Simulat, Beijing, Peoples R China
7.Minist Emergency Management, Natl Disaster Reduct Ctr China, Beijing, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714		 Wu, Shengnan,Lei, Yu,Yang, Saini,et al. An Agent-Based Approach to Integrate Human Dynamics Into Disaster Risk Management[J]. FRONTIERS IN EARTH SCIENCE,2022,9:10.
APA Wu, Shengnan,Lei, Yu,Yang, Saini,Cui, Peng,&Jin, Wen.(2022).An Agent-Based Approach to Integrate Human Dynamics Into Disaster Risk Management.FRONTIERS IN EARTH SCIENCE,9,10.
MLA Wu, Shengnan,et al."An Agent-Based Approach to Integrate Human Dynamics Into Disaster Risk Management".FRONTIERS IN EARTH SCIENCE 9(2022):10.

入库方式： OAI收割

来源：地理科学与资源研究所

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