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Estimating China's Population over 21st Century: Spatially Explicit Scenarios Consistent with the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)

文献类型：期刊论文

作者Chen, Jie1,2; Liu, Yujie1,2; Zhang, Ermei1,2; Pan, Tao1,2,3; Liu, Yanhua1,2
刊名SUSTAINABILITY
出版日期2022-02-01
卷号14期号:4页码:17
关键词population projection shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) climate change population structure gridded population
DOI10.3390/su14042442
通讯作者Liu, Yujie(liuyujie@igsnrr.ac.cn)
英文摘要Accurate and reliable subnational and spatially explicit population projections under shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) for China will be helpful for understanding long-term demographic changes and formulating targeted mitigation and adaptation policies under climate change. In this study, national and provincial populations for China by age, sex, and education level to 2100 under five SSPs were estimated using the population-development-environment model. These parameters include fertility, mortality, migration, and education and consider the most recent birth policy in China. To quantify these projections spatially, the gridded population was provided at 1 km x 1 km by spatial downscaling. Results show the national population is highest under SSP3, with 1.71 x 10(9) people in 2100. Guangdong, Henan, and Shandong are the most populous in SSP1, 2, 4, 5, while Guangxi is the most populous province in SSP3, reaching 1.54 x 10(8) people. The differences in education level among scenarios are obvious, especially in 2100 where education level for SSP1 and SSP5 is the highest. The spatial distribution of population varies across the country, with the majority of the population concentrated in southern and eastern China, especially in the coastal regions. Our results under different SSPs could provide a reference to project disaster risks, formulate relevant policies and guide sustainable development from a long-term perspective.
WOS关键词EDUCATION ; PROJECTIONS ; FRAMEWORK ; GROWTH ; SEX ; AGE
资助项目Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences[XDA28060200] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China for Excellent Young Scholars[42122003] ; Youth Innovation Promotion Association, Chinese Academy of Sciences[Y202016]
WOS研究方向Science & Technology - Other Topics ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
语种英语
WOS记录号WOS:000764300300001
出版者MDPI
资助机构Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences ; National Natural Science Foundation of China for Excellent Young Scholars ; Youth Innovation Promotion Association, Chinese Academy of Sciences
源URL[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/171305]  
专题中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
通讯作者Liu, Yujie
作者单位1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci, Key Lab Land Surface Pattern & Simulat & Nat Reso, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China
2.Univ Chinese Acad Sci UCAS, Coll Resources & Environm, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China
3.Chinese Acad Sci, Bur Dev & Planning, Beijing 100864, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714		 Chen, Jie,Liu, Yujie,Zhang, Ermei,et al. Estimating China's Population over 21st Century: Spatially Explicit Scenarios Consistent with the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)[J]. SUSTAINABILITY,2022,14(4):17.
APA Chen, Jie,Liu, Yujie,Zhang, Ermei,Pan, Tao,&Liu, Yanhua.(2022).Estimating China's Population over 21st Century: Spatially Explicit Scenarios Consistent with the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs).SUSTAINABILITY,14(4),17.
MLA Chen, Jie,et al."Estimating China's Population over 21st Century: Spatially Explicit Scenarios Consistent with the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)".SUSTAINABILITY 14.4(2022):17.

入库方式： OAI收割

来源：地理科学与资源研究所

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