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Simulation of land-cover change in Jing-Jin-Ji region under different scenarios of SSP-RCP

文献类型：期刊论文

作者Fan Zemeng1,2,3
刊名JOURNAL OF GEOGRAPHICAL SCIENCES
出版日期2022-03-01
卷号32期号:3页码:421-440
关键词scenario of surface modeling in land cover SSP-RCP scenarios land-cover scenarios spatiotemporal simulation Jing-Jin-Ji region
ISSN号1009-637X
DOI10.1007/s11442-022-1955-z
通讯作者Fan Zemeng(fanzm@lreis.ac.cn)
英文摘要How to simulate land-cover change, driven by climate change and human activity, is not only a hot issue in the field of land-cover research but also in the field of sustainable urbanization. A surface-modeling method of land cover scenario (SSMLC) driven by the coupling of natural and human factors was developed to overcome limitations in existing land-cover models. Based on the climatic scenario data of CMIP6 SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 released by IPCC in 2020, which combines shared socioeconomic paths (SSPs) with typical concentration paths (RCPs), observation climatic data concerning meteorological stations, the population, GDP, transportation data, land-cover data from 2020, and related policy refences, are used to simulate scenarios of land-cover change in the Jing-Jin-Ji region using SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 for the years 2040, 2070 and 2100, respectively. The simulation results show that the total accuracy of SSMLC in the Jing-Jin-Ji region attains 93.52%. The change intensity of land cover in the Jing-Jin-Ji region is the highest (plus 3.12% per decade) between 2020 and 2040, gradually decreasing after 2040. Built-up land has the fastest increasing rate (plus 5.07% per decade), and wetland has the fastest decreasing rate (minus 3.10% per decade) between 2020 and 2100. The change intensity of land cover under scenario SSP5-8.5 is the highest among the abovementioned three scenarios in the Jing-Jin-Ji region between 2020 and 2100. The impacts of GDP, population, transportation, and policies on land-cover change are generally greater than those on other land-cover types. The results indicate that the SSMLC method can be used to project the change trend and intensity of land cover under the different scenarios. This will help to optimize the spatial allocation and planning of land cover, and could be used to obtain key data for carrying out eco-environmental conservation measures in the Jing-Jin-Ji region in the future.
WOS关键词MAJOR TERRESTRIAL ECOSYSTEMS ; TIANJIN-HEBEI REGION ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; MODEL ; URBANIZATION ; SYSTEM ; ENVIRONMENT ; DYNAMICS ; CHINA
资助项目National Key R&D Program of China[2017YFA0603702] ; National Key R&D Program of China[2018YFC0507202] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41971358] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41930647] ; Strategic Priority Research Program (A) of the Chinese Academy of Sciences[XDA20030203] ; Innovation Research Project of State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environment Information System, CAS
WOS研究方向Physical Geography
语种英语
WOS记录号WOS:000764791300003
出版者SCIENCE PRESS
资助机构National Key R&D Program of China ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; Strategic Priority Research Program (A) of the Chinese Academy of Sciences ; Innovation Research Project of State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environment Information System, CAS
源URL[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/171758]  
专题中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
通讯作者Fan Zemeng
作者单位1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, State Key Lab Resources & Environm Informat Syst, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China
2.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Coll Resources & Environm, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China
3.Jiangsu Ctr Collaborat Innovat Geog Informat Reso, Nanjing 210023, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714		 Fan Zemeng. Simulation of land-cover change in Jing-Jin-Ji region under different scenarios of SSP-RCP[J]. JOURNAL OF GEOGRAPHICAL SCIENCES,2022,32(3):421-440.
APA Fan Zemeng.(2022).Simulation of land-cover change in Jing-Jin-Ji region under different scenarios of SSP-RCP.JOURNAL OF GEOGRAPHICAL SCIENCES,32(3),421-440.
MLA Fan Zemeng."Simulation of land-cover change in Jing-Jin-Ji region under different scenarios of SSP-RCP".JOURNAL OF GEOGRAPHICAL SCIENCES 32.3(2022):421-440.

入库方式： OAI收割

来源：地理科学与资源研究所

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