Potential Range Shift of Snow Leopard in Future Climate Change Scenarios
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Li, Xinhai2,5; Ma, Liming3,5; Hu, Dazhi4; Ma, Duifang4; Li, Renqiang6; Sun, Yuehua2,5; Gao, Erhu1 |
| 刊名 | SUSTAINABILITY
 |
| 出版日期 | 2022-02-01 |
| 卷号 | 14期号:3页码:14 |
| 关键词 | alpine ecosystem conservation planning global warming model selection species distribution model range shift representative concentration pathways (RCPs) |
| DOI | 10.3390/su14031115 |
| 通讯作者 | Li, Xinhai(lixh@ioz.ac.cn) ; Sun, Yuehua(sunyh@ioz.ac.cn) ; Gao, Erhu(gaoerhu2022@126.com) |
| 英文摘要 | The snow leopard (Panthera uncia) lives in alpine ecosystems in Central Asia, where it could face intensive climate change and is thus a major conservation concern. We compiled a dataset of 406 GPS-located occurrences based on field surveys, literature, and the GBIF database. We used Random Forest to build different species distribution models with a maximum of 27 explanatory variables, including climatic, topographical, and human impact variables, to predict potential distribution for the snow leopard and make climate change projections. We estimated the potential range shifts of the snow leopard under two global climate models for different representative concentration pathways for 2050 and 2070. We found the distribution center of the snow leopard may move northwest by about 200 km and may move upward in elevation by about 100 m by 2070. Unlike previous studies on the range shifts of the snow leopard, we highlighted that upward rather than northward range shifts are the main pathways for the snow leopard in the changing climate, since the landform of their habitat allows an upward shift, whereas mountains and valleys would block northward movement. Conservation of the snow leopard should therefore prioritize protecting its current habitat over making movement corridors. |
| WOS关键词 | NATIONAL NATURE-RESERVE ; PANTHERA-UNCIA ; HABITAT SUITABILITY ; CONSERVATION ; MODELS ; DISTRIBUTIONS ; PREDATION ; LIVESTOCK ; IMPACTS ; DENSITY |
| WOS研究方向 | Science & Technology - Other Topics ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000759153400001 |
| 出版者 | MDPI |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/172060]  |
| 专题 | 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 |
| 通讯作者 | Li, Xinhai; Sun, Yuehua; Gao, Erhu |
| 作者单位 | 1.Acad Inventory & Planning, Natl Forestry & Grassland Adm, Beijing 100714, Peoples R China 2.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Coll Life Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China 3.Hebei Univ, Sch Life Sci, Baoding 071002, Peoples R China 4.Qilianshan Natl Pk Adm Bur Zhangye Branch, Zhangye 734000, Peoples R China 5.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Zool, Key Lab Anim Ecol & Conservat Biol, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China 6.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Li, Xinhai,Ma, Liming,Hu, Dazhi,et al. Potential Range Shift of Snow Leopard in Future Climate Change Scenarios[J]. SUSTAINABILITY,2022,14(3):14. |
| APA | Li, Xinhai.,Ma, Liming.,Hu, Dazhi.,Ma, Duifang.,Li, Renqiang.,...&Gao, Erhu.(2022).Potential Range Shift of Snow Leopard in Future Climate Change Scenarios.SUSTAINABILITY,14(3),14. |
| MLA | Li, Xinhai,et al."Potential Range Shift of Snow Leopard in Future Climate Change Scenarios".SUSTAINABILITY 14.3(2022):14. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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