Reducing livestock snow disaster risk in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau due to warming and socioeconomic development
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Ye, Tao1,2,3,4; Liu, Weihang1,2,3,4; Chen, Shuo1,2,3,4; Chen, Deliang7; Shi, Peijun1,2,3,4,5,6; Wang, Aihui8; Li, Yijia1,4,9 |
| 刊名 | SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT
 |
| 出版日期 | 2022-03-20 |
| 卷号 | 813页码:11 |
| 关键词 | Climate change Socioeconomic development Livestock snow disaster Relative contribution The Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau |
| ISSN号 | 0048-9697 |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.151869 |
| 通讯作者 | Shi, Peijun(spj@bnu.edu.cn) |
| 英文摘要 | Global warming can have positive or negative impacts on society depending on sectors and changes in climate impact drivers, resulting in opportunities or risks. The same holds true for social-economic changes. However, past research has mostly focused on assessing risks, leaving potential opportunities under-addressed. Here, we simulated the impact of climate change and socioeconomic development on livestock snow disasters over the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau during 1986-2100, by integrating the drivers of climate and socioeconomic changes via an event-based disaster risk assessment model. Model results show climate change and socioeconomic development contributes about equally to reducing livestock loss in snow disasters by 4% yr up to 2100 under representative concentration pathway 8.5 and shared-socioeconomic pathway 5. The marginal benefit from climate change was projected to be a 43.2% reduction in annual average loss per degree kelvin warming, and that from socioeconomic development was a 12.4% reduction per 100% increase in gross domestic production. In a 2 degrees C warmer world, the annual average loss could be 91% smaller compared with the baseline period (1986-2005). Limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees C instead of 2 et would reduce the benefit by 5%, requiring a 135% increase in the marginal benefits of prevention capacity to offset the reduction. (C) 2021 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. |
| WOS关键词 | CLIMATE-CHANGE ; INNER-MONGOLIA ; CHINA ; IMPACTS ; POLICY ; MODEL ; POPULATION ; ADAPTATION ; VEGETATION ; ECOSYSTEM |
| 资助项目 | Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program of China[2019QZKK0906] ; Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program of China[2019QZKK0606] |
| WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000767232600005 |
| 出版者 | ELSEVIER |
| 资助机构 | Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program of China |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/172489]  |
| 专题 | 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 |
| 通讯作者 | Shi, Peijun |
| 作者单位 | 1.Acad Disaster Reduct & Emergency Management, Minist Educ, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China 2.Beijing Normal Univ, Fac Geog Sci, State Key Lab Earth Surface Proc & Resource Ecol, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China 3.Beijing Normal Univ, Fac Geog Sci, Key Lab Environm Change & Nat Disasters, Minist Educ, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China 4.Acad Disaster Reduct & Emergency Management, Minist Emergency Management, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China 5.Acad Plateau Sci & Sustainabil, Peoples Govt Qinghai Prov, Xining 810016, Peoples R China 6.Beijing Normal Univ, Xining 810016, Peoples R China 7.Univ Gothenburg, Dept Earth Sci, Reg Climate Grp, S-40530 Gothenburg, Sweden 8.Chinese Acad Sci, Nansen Zhu Int Res Ctr, Inst Atmospher Phys, Beijing 100029, Peoples R China 9.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Ye, Tao,Liu, Weihang,Chen, Shuo,et al. Reducing livestock snow disaster risk in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau due to warming and socioeconomic development[J]. SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT,2022,813:11. |
| APA | Ye, Tao.,Liu, Weihang.,Chen, Shuo.,Chen, Deliang.,Shi, Peijun.,...&Li, Yijia.(2022).Reducing livestock snow disaster risk in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau due to warming and socioeconomic development.SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT,813,11. |
| MLA | Ye, Tao,et al."Reducing livestock snow disaster risk in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau due to warming and socioeconomic development".SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 813(2022):11. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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