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Global permafrost simulation and prediction from 2010 to 2100 under different climate scenarios

文献类型：期刊论文

作者Zhao, Shangmin2; Cheng, Weiming1,3; Yuan, Yecheng3; Fan, Zemeng3; Zhang, Jin2; Zhou, Chenghu1,3
刊名ENVIRONMENTAL MODELLING & SOFTWARE
出版日期2022-03-01
卷号149页码:8
关键词Global permafrost distribution Permafrost degradation Logistic regression model Permafrost distribution simulation and prediction Topographic factors Climate scenarios
ISSN号1364-8152
DOI10.1016/j.envsoft.2022.105307
通讯作者Zhao, Shangmin(zhaoshangmin@tyut.edu.cn)
英文摘要This paper aims to simulate and predict global permafrost distribution, and analyse its change from 2010 to 2100 under different climate scenarios. Based on different factors (topography, land cover, climate and location) and global permafrost distribution status, logistic regression model (LRM) is chosen and constructed to simulate and predict the global permafrost distributions. Thus, the global permafrost distributions at T1 (2010-2040), T2 (2040-2070) and T3 (2070-2100) are predicted under different climate scenarios (RCP26, RCP45 and RCP85). From T1 to T3, the area of global permafrost has the largest degradation under RCP85 scenarios. From RCP26 to RCP85 at T3, the area of the degraded permafrost reached 0.671 x 10(8) km(2). The degraded permafrost mainly distributes in east Asia, west Asia, north Europe and north America. The west Asia has the highest degrading distance, about 600 km under the situations of both RCP85 from T1 to T3 and from RCP26 to RCP85 at T3.
WOS关键词MOUNTAIN PERMAFROST ; LAND-COVER ; ALPINE PERMAFROST ; PLATEAU ; SURFACE ; CARBON ; MODEL ; AREA
资助项目National Key Research and Development Program, China[2017YFB0503603] ; National Key Research and Development Program, China[2018YFB0505402] ; Natural Science Foundation of Shanxi Province, China[201901D111098] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[42130110] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[42171424]
WOS研究方向Computer Science ; Engineering ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Water Resources
语种英语
WOS记录号WOS:000787071900002
出版者ELSEVIER SCI LTD
资助机构National Key Research and Development Program, China ; Natural Science Foundation of Shanxi Province, China ; National Natural Science Foundation of China
源URL[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/175230]  
专题中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
通讯作者Zhao, Shangmin
作者单位1.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China
2.Taiyuan Univ Technol, Coll Min Engn, Dept Surveying & Mapping, Taiyuan 030024, Peoples R China
3.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog & Nat Resources Res, State Key Lab Resources & Environm Informat Syst, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714		 Zhao, Shangmin,Cheng, Weiming,Yuan, Yecheng,et al. Global permafrost simulation and prediction from 2010 to 2100 under different climate scenarios[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL MODELLING & SOFTWARE,2022,149:8.
APA Zhao, Shangmin,Cheng, Weiming,Yuan, Yecheng,Fan, Zemeng,Zhang, Jin,&Zhou, Chenghu.(2022).Global permafrost simulation and prediction from 2010 to 2100 under different climate scenarios.ENVIRONMENTAL MODELLING & SOFTWARE,149,8.
MLA Zhao, Shangmin,et al."Global permafrost simulation and prediction from 2010 to 2100 under different climate scenarios".ENVIRONMENTAL MODELLING & SOFTWARE 149(2022):8.

入库方式： OAI收割

来源：地理科学与资源研究所

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