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Various maize yield losses and their dynamics triggered by drought thresholds based on Copula-Bayesian conditional probabilities

文献类型：期刊论文

作者Li, Pei2; Huang, Qiang2; Huang, Shengzhi2; Leng, Guoyong3; Peng, Jian4,5; Wang, Hao1; Zheng, Xudong2; Li, Yifei2; Fang, Wei2
刊名AGRICULTURAL WATER MANAGEMENT
出版日期2022-03-01
卷号261页码:12
关键词Crop yield Vulnerability SPEI Dynamic thresholds Northeast China
ISSN号0378-3774
DOI10.1016/j.agwat.2021.107391
通讯作者Huang, Shengzhi(huangshengzhi7788@126.com)
英文摘要In the context of global warming and human interventions, the impact of climate on crop yield may change over time. Therefore, assessing the dynamics of drought thresholds that trigger various maize yield losses is critical for food security under climate change. To this end, this study aims to assess the vulnerability of maize to drought stress in three provinces of Northeast China (Heilongjiang, Jilin and Liaoning provinces) and to quantify the drought thresholds that cause different levels of maize yield loss. A Copula-Bayesian conditional probability bivariate model is constructed to combine drought conditions and maize yield. Results indicate that: (1) for the whole study period 1980-2018, drought thresholds that induced different levels of maize yield reduction were significantly different in the three northeastern provinces of China; on average, the drought thresholds that induced 30%, 40% and 50% maize yield losses were-1.06,-1.53 and-2.23 in the three provinces of Northeast China; (2) during the transition from mild to moderate and severe drought, maize vulnerability in Liaoning province gradually exceeded that of Jilin and Heilongjiang province; (3) from 1980 to 1999-2000-2018, the drought thresholds that triggered the same percentage of maize yield reduction increased in all three provinces, suggesting a dramatically increasing trend in the vulnerability of maize yields to drought; (4) the changes in precipitation and evapotranspiration leading to increased drought severity were the main factors inducing drought threshold dynamics in both sub-study periods. The probabilistic assessment of the impact of drought on maize yield is expected to provide useful insights into the mitigation of drought and its effects under climate change.
WOS关键词DIFFERENT GROWTH-STAGES ; CROP YIELD ; IMPACT ; SENSITIVITY ; STRESS
资助项目Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences[XDA28060100] ; National Key Research and Development Program of China[2017YFC0405900] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[51709221]
WOS研究方向Agriculture ; Water Resources
语种英语
WOS记录号WOS:000792810200004
出版者ELSEVIER
资助机构Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences ; National Key Research and Development Program of China ; National Natural Science Foundation of China
源URL[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/176701]  
专题中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
通讯作者Huang, Shengzhi
作者单位1.China Inst Water Resources & Hydropower Res, State Key Lab Simulat & Regulat Water Cycle River, Beijing 100038, Peoples R China
2.Xian Univ Technol, State Key Lab Ecohydraul Northwest Arid Reg China, Xian 710048, Peoples R China
3.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Water Cycle & Related Land Surface Proc, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China
4.UFZ Helmholtz Ctr Environm Res, Dept Remote Sensing, Permoserstr 15, D-04318 Leipzig, Germany
5.Univ Leipzig, Remote Sensing Ctr Earth Syst Res, D-04103 Leipzig, Germany
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714		 Li, Pei,Huang, Qiang,Huang, Shengzhi,et al. Various maize yield losses and their dynamics triggered by drought thresholds based on Copula-Bayesian conditional probabilities[J]. AGRICULTURAL WATER MANAGEMENT,2022,261:12.
APA Li, Pei.,Huang, Qiang.,Huang, Shengzhi.,Leng, Guoyong.,Peng, Jian.,...&Fang, Wei.(2022).Various maize yield losses and their dynamics triggered by drought thresholds based on Copula-Bayesian conditional probabilities.AGRICULTURAL WATER MANAGEMENT,261,12.
MLA Li, Pei,et al."Various maize yield losses and their dynamics triggered by drought thresholds based on Copula-Bayesian conditional probabilities".AGRICULTURAL WATER MANAGEMENT 261(2022):12.

入库方式： OAI收割

来源：地理科学与资源研究所

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