Untangling the changing impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions and vaccination on European COVID-19 trajectories
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Ge, Yong2,3; Zhang, Wen-Bin2,3,4; Wu, Xilin2,3; Ruktanonchai, Corrine W.5; Liu, Haiyan6; Wang, Jianghao2,3; Song, Yongze7; Liu, Mengxiao2,3; Yan, Wei8; Yang, Juan9,10 |
| 刊名 | NATURE COMMUNICATIONS
 |
| 出版日期 | 2022-06-03 |
| 卷号 | 13期号:1页码:9 |
| DOI | 10.1038/s41467-022-30897-1 |
| 通讯作者 | Ge, Yong(gey@lreis.ac.cn) ; Tatem, Andrew J.(A.J.Tatem@soton.ac.uk) ; Lai, Shengjie(shengjie.lai@soton.ac.uk) |
| 英文摘要 | Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and vaccination are two fundamental approaches for mitigating the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. However, the real-world impact of NPIs versus vaccination, or a combination of both, on COVID-19 remains uncertain. To address this, we built a Bayesian inference model to assess the changing effect of NPIs and vaccination on reducing COVID-19 transmission, based on a large-scale dataset including epidemiological parameters, virus variants, vaccines, and climate factors in Europe from August 2020 to October 2021. We found that (1) the combined effect of NPIs and vaccination resulted in a 53% (95% confidence interval: 42-62%) reduction in reproduction number by October 2021, whereas NPIs and vaccination reduced the transmission by 35% and 38%, respectively; (2) compared with vaccination, the change of NPI effect was less sensitive to emerging variants; (3) the relative effect of NPIs declined 12% from May 2021 due to a lower stringency and the introduction of vaccination strategies. Our results demonstrate that NPIs were complementary to vaccination in an effort to reduce COVID-19 transmission, and the relaxation of NPIs might depend on vaccination rates, control targets, and vaccine effectiveness concerning extant and emerging variants. Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and COVID-19 vaccination have been implemented concurrently, making their relative effects difficult to measure. Here, the authors show that effects of NPIs reduced as vaccine coverage increased, but that NPIs could still be important in the context of more transmissible variants. |
| WOS关键词 | REINFECTION ; HEALTH |
| 资助项目 | National Natural Science Foundation for Distinguished Young Scholars of China[41725006] ; Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation[INV-024911] ; Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation[OPP1106427] ; Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation[OPP1032350] ; Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation[OPP1134076] ; Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation[OPP1094793] ; National Institutes of Health[R01AI160780] ; Clinton Health Access Initiative ; UK Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (UK-FCDO) ; Wellcome Trust[106866/Z/15/Z] ; Wellcome Trust[204613/Z/16/Z] ; EU H2020[MOOD 874850] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[81773498] ; Shanghai Municipal Science and Technology Major Project[ZD2021CY001] |
| WOS研究方向 | Science & Technology - Other Topics |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000805785500006 |
| 出版者 | NATURE PORTFOLIO |
| 资助机构 | National Natural Science Foundation for Distinguished Young Scholars of China ; Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation ; National Institutes of Health ; Clinton Health Access Initiative ; UK Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (UK-FCDO) ; Wellcome Trust ; EU H2020 ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; Shanghai Municipal Science and Technology Major Project |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/178975]  |
| 专题 | 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 |
| 通讯作者 | Ge, Yong; Tatem, Andrew J.; Lai, Shengjie |
| 作者单位 | 1.Univ Southampton, Inst Life Sci, Southampton, Hants, England 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, State Key Lab Resources & Environm Informat Syst, Beijing, Peoples R China 3.Univ Acad Sci, Coll Resources & Environm, Beijing, Peoples R China 4.Univ Lancaster, Fac Sci & Technol, Lancaster Environm Ctr, Lancaster, England 5.Virginia Tech, Populat Hlth Sci, Blacksburg, VA USA 6.Marine Data Ctr, South Marine Sci & Engn Guangdong Lab Zhuhai, Zhuhai, Peoples R China 7.Curtin Univ, Sch Design & Built Environm, Perth, WA, Australia 8.Peking Univ Third Hosp, Resp Med Dept, Beijing, Peoples R China 9.Fudan Univ, Sch Publ Hlth, Key Lab Publ Hlth Safety, Minist Educ, Shanghai, Peoples R China 10.Fudan Univ, Shanghai Inst Infect Dis & Biosecur, Shanghai, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Ge, Yong,Zhang, Wen-Bin,Wu, Xilin,et al. Untangling the changing impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions and vaccination on European COVID-19 trajectories[J]. NATURE COMMUNICATIONS,2022,13(1):9. |
| APA | Ge, Yong.,Zhang, Wen-Bin.,Wu, Xilin.,Ruktanonchai, Corrine W..,Liu, Haiyan.,...&Lai, Shengjie.(2022).Untangling the changing impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions and vaccination on European COVID-19 trajectories.NATURE COMMUNICATIONS,13(1),9. |
| MLA | Ge, Yong,et al."Untangling the changing impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions and vaccination on European COVID-19 trajectories".NATURE COMMUNICATIONS 13.1(2022):9. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
浏览0
下载0
收藏0
其他版本
除非特别说明，本系统中所有内容都受版权保护，并保留所有权利。