Future changes in extreme precipitation in central Asia with 1.5-4 degrees C global warming based on Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 simulations
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Zhang, Jintao1,2; Wang, Fang1 |
| 刊名 | INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
 |
| 出版日期 | 2022-06-06 |
| 页码 | 17 |
| 关键词 | central Asia CMIP5 CMIP6 evaluation extreme precipitation projection |
| ISSN号 | 0899-8418 |
| DOI | 10.1002/joc.7740 |
| 通讯作者 | Wang, Fang(wangf@igsnrr.ac.cn) |
| 英文摘要 | Quantifying future precipitation changes in central Asia (CA), one of the largest semiarid-to-arid regions in the world, is increasingly attracting attention. Extreme precipitation changes in CA have been studied based on global climate models (GCMs) in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). However, quantitative information regarding projected changes in extreme precipitation in CA under the 1.5-4 degrees C global warming scenario is lacking; the potential advantages of the latest-generation GCMs (i.e., CMIP6) in characterizing precipitation in CA have not been investigated. Thus, in this study, we evaluated the models' overall performance in reproducing the spatiotemporal pattern of four extreme precipitation indices and further performed an observationally constrained projection of changes in extreme precipitation indices for 1.5-4 degrees C global warming based on a weighted multimodel ensemble. Regarding homologous models, CMIP6 models exhibited limited improvement relative to their earlier versions in CMIP5. We project that extreme precipitation indices in CA will increase approximately linearly as global warming increases, except for the consecutive dry days (CDD) index. The changes in precipitation intensity and accumulation exhibit robust consistency between models, whereas the signal of CDD changes is masked by the noise produced by intermodel uncertainties. The changes in the average annual accumulated and maximum 1-day precipitation relative to the reference period (1981-2010) in CA are 12.0 and 14.2% at 3 degrees C global warming (similar to late-century warming projected based on current mitigation policies), respectively. Moreover, we demonstrate the advantage of the weighted scheme over the traditional unweighted scheme for multimodel ensemble projection. |
| WOS关键词 | 2 DEGREES-C ; TEMPERATURE EXTREMES ; LARGE ENSEMBLES ; CLIMATE ; CHINA ; CMIP5 ; INDEXES ; UNCERTAINTY ; LAND ; PERFORMANCE |
| 资助项目 | National Key Research and Development Program of China[2019YFC0507805] ; Strategic Leading Science and Technology Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences[XDA20020202] |
| WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000806597100001 |
| 出版者 | WILEY |
| 资助机构 | National Key Research and Development Program of China ; Strategic Leading Science and Technology Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/179045]  |
| 专题 | 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 |
| 通讯作者 | Wang, Fang |
| 作者单位 | 1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Land Surface Pattern & Simulat, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China 2.Fudan Univ, Dept Atmospher & Ocean Sci, Shanghai, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Zhang, Jintao,Wang, Fang. Future changes in extreme precipitation in central Asia with 1.5-4 degrees C global warming based on Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 simulations[J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,2022:17. |
| APA | Zhang, Jintao,&Wang, Fang.(2022).Future changes in extreme precipitation in central Asia with 1.5-4 degrees C global warming based on Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 simulations.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,17. |
| MLA | Zhang, Jintao,et al."Future changes in extreme precipitation in central Asia with 1.5-4 degrees C global warming based on Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 simulations".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY (2022):17. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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