Land use/land cover prediction and analysis of the middle reaches of the Yangtze River under different scenarios
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Zhang, Shengqing3; Yang, Peng3; Xia, Jun1; Wang, Wenyu3; Cai, Wei3; Chen, Nengcheng5; Hu, Sheng6; Luo, Xiangang3; Li, Jiang2; Zhan, Chesheng4 |
| 刊名 | SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT
 |
| 出版日期 | 2022-08-10 |
| 卷号 | 833页码:12 |
| 关键词 | Remote sensing Random forest Patch generated land use simulation model SSP-RCP Yangtze River basin |
| ISSN号 | 0048-9697 |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.155238 |
| 通讯作者 | Yang, Peng(yangp@cug.edu.cn) |
| 英文摘要 | Land use and land cover (LULC) projections are critical for climate models to predict the impacts of LULC change on the Earth system. Different assumptions and policies influence LULC changes, which are a key factor in the decisions of planners and conservationists. Therefore, we predicted and analyzed LULC changes in future scenarios (SSP1-26, SSP2-45, SSP5-85) in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River basin (MYRB). We obtain historical (i.e., 2005-2020) LULC data from the Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform using the random forest (RF) classification method. LULC data for different future scenarios are also obtained by the driving factors of LULC changes in future shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs), representative concentration pathways (RCPs) (SSP-RCP) scenarios (i.e., 2035-2095) and the patch-generated land use simulation (PLUS) model. The major findings are as follows: (1) simulation using the PLUS model based on the acquired classification data and the selected drivers can obtain accurate land use data in MYRB and a Kappa coefficient of 89.6% and 0.82, respectively; (2) as for the LULC changes in the MYRB, forests increased by 3.9% and decreased by 1.2% in the SSP1-26 and SSP5-85 scenarios, respectively, while farmland decreased by 9.2% and increased by 13.4% in SSP 1-26 and SSP 2-45, respectively, during 2080-2095; and (3) the main conversions in LULC in the MYRB were farmland to forest, forests/water bodies to farmland, and forests/grasslands to farmland/buildings in SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP 5-8.5, respectively. This can be mainly attributed to gross domestic product (GDP), population (POP), temperature, and precipitation. Overall, this study not only contributes to the understanding of the mechanisms of LULC changes in the MYRB but also provides a basis for ecological and climatic studies. |
| WOS关键词 | CLIMATE-CHANGE ; ECOSYSTEM SERVICES ; EXTREME PRECIPITATION ; MOUNTAINOUS AREAS ; UNITED-STATES ; TRADE-OFFS ; CLASSIFICATION ; CHINA ; URBANIZATION ; TEMPERATURE |
| 资助项目 | Open Fund of National Engineering Research Center for Geographic Information System, China University of Geosciences ; State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science[2020SWG01] ; Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences[XDA23040504] |
| WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000810403600012 |
| 出版者 | ELSEVIER |
| 资助机构 | Open Fund of National Engineering Research Center for Geographic Information System, China University of Geosciences ; State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science ; Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/179576]  |
| 专题 | 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 |
| 通讯作者 | Yang, Peng |
| 作者单位 | 1.Wuhan Univ, State Key Lab Water Resources & Hydropower Engn S, Wuhan 430000, Peoples R China 2.Informat Ctr, Dept Nat Resources Hubei Prov, Wuhan 430071, Peoples R China 3.China Univ Geosci, Sch Geog & Informat Engn, Wuhan 430074, Peoples R China 4.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Water Cycle & Related Land Surface Proc, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China 5.China Univ Geosci, Natl Engn Res Ctr Geog Informat Syst, Wuhan 430074, Peoples R China 6.Yangtze Valley Water Environm Monitoring Ctr, Wuhan 430010, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Zhang, Shengqing,Yang, Peng,Xia, Jun,et al. Land use/land cover prediction and analysis of the middle reaches of the Yangtze River under different scenarios[J]. SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT,2022,833:12. |
| APA | Zhang, Shengqing.,Yang, Peng.,Xia, Jun.,Wang, Wenyu.,Cai, Wei.,...&Zhan, Chesheng.(2022).Land use/land cover prediction and analysis of the middle reaches of the Yangtze River under different scenarios.SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT,833,12. |
| MLA | Zhang, Shengqing,et al."Land use/land cover prediction and analysis of the middle reaches of the Yangtze River under different scenarios".SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 833(2022):12. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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